-Home Mac"> Baker also said that despite its price, retailers and customers will quickly realize that the Mac mini will end up costing a lot more before it ends up on a home or office desktop. "Its not really a take-home Mac at $499," Baker said. "Youre going to have to add stuff to make it usable." Do Apples new products make the grade? Click here for a column."It seems to me to be targeted at those who are multiple iPod owners," Baker said. "I dont think its likely to cause cannibalization of the iPod mini. It will be a good solid product, to help them get additional [market] share." Baker was unwilling to take a guess at what type of share Apple could get in the first few months, but did say the product will have an impact as soon as it is available through the majority of its mass retailers such as Target, Sears and Best Buy. "Apple could take the top position in the flash-based MP3 market in the next few quarters," Milunovich said. "This is a market killer at $99," Wilcox said. "Its very aggressively priced."
"There are two buyers for this," he said. "Consumers who wont pay $249 for an iPod mini, and existing iPod owners who want something small to run with."
Wilcox said its important to remember that Jupiter surveys have clearly shown that most U.S. consumers have far less than 1,000 songs they would want to listen to on a regular basis, "so the capacity of one gigabyte will be plenty for most," he said.
But for Wilcox, the success of the iPod shufflewithout a displaywill come down to how easy it is to use its iTunes music software.
"If iTunes handles the workload to organize, shuffling will be fine," he said. "If it doesnt, shuffle is going to be a lot more cumbersome."
Motorola is previewing an iTunes phone. Click here to read more.
Baker tempered his optimism about the iPod shuffle based on what has happened to Apples MP3 competitors, who in the past have released players with no display.
"Apple is taking a big chance going without a screen," Baker said. "Most MP3 players that came out without screens came back having one, like the original Creative MP3 player."
He said the iPod shuffles lack of an FM radio could be another negative factor.
"If the iPod has reached iconic status, this product will start snatching share immediately" Wilcox said. "But it has to be as widely available as the iPod and iPod mini."
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As for the flash-based iPod shuffle, starting at $99, Baker said he thinks the price is right.