There are more than 62 million users of Google's Google+ social-networking service, according to an industry observer's unofficial statistical analysis.
Google's
Google+ social-networking and identity service has garnered 62 million users
and is on track to reach 400 million by the end of 2012.
This
projection comes from Paul Allen, founder of Ancestry.com and a self-proclaimed
unofficial Google+ statistician. Allen, who reported his numbers as of Dec. 27,
estimates that about 625,000 new users are joining Google+ each day. Allen said
every week his team runs hundreds of queries to track the growth of Google+.
Google has
been aggressively marketing and promoting Google+, with new TV ads featuring
athletes and stars. Google also has been integrating Google+ with its other
products, such as its search engine. And the company has been tweaking the
Google+ product to appeal to more users, particularly business users with the
introduction of Google+ Pages in November.
But the latest
push on Google+ appears to be paying dividends. "What is really remarkable is
that nearly 1/4th of all Google+ users (24.01% to be precise) will have joined
in December alone," Allen wrote in a
Dec. 27 post. "If this rate of new signups (625K
daily) continues, then Google+ will reach 100 million users on Feb. 25th and
200 million users on August 3. They will finish 2012 with 293 million users."
Allen also
predicts that a network effect will kick in and have a significant impact on
Google+ signups. Allen also said he expects more Google+ APIs to be released in
2012 so that developers will be able to build applications and "experiences" on
top of Google+ to attract and benefit even more users.
"I expect the
growth to continue to accelerate, however. Google can continue to integrate
Google+ into its other products, and word of mouth will continue to build,"
Allen said. "Most importantly, 700,000 Android devices are activated daily, and
this will become a very significant source of new users for Google+. That
number will also grow next year."
The bottom
line of his analysis is that Allen sees 2012 as a big year for Google+. "Based on the
accelerated growth I'm seeing and all the dials and levers Google can still utilize,
and the developer ecosystem that will be developed," Allen wrote, "I predict that 2012 is
going to be a breakout year for Google+ and that it will end next year with
more than 400 million users."
Those are
healthy figures, but they are a far cry from Facebook's more than 800 million
users. Still, Google+ is on the rise and its growth will merit observation in
the 2012.
Allen's estimates for Google+ are as follows:
July 13: 10
million
Aug. 1: 20.5
million
Sept. 1: 24.7
million
Oct. 1: 38
million (Larry Page announced "more than 40m users" on Oct. 13)
Nov. 1: 43
million
Dec. 1: 50
million
Dec. 27: 62
million
Jan. 1: 65.8
million (forecast)
Feb. 1: 85.2
million (forecast)
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