Will Chrome OS Fork Linux?

Google is not used to releasing finished products, so creating an operating system, even one based on open source, is bound to be a challenge. Android took a few years of development before it saw the light of day, and it is continually being tweaked and improved. Expect Google to take great pains to release a stable product.

After all, this is a platform on which Web apps will run, not just a Web app that can be patched up with a few lines of code. A broken OS means a broken computer. A broken computer means a busted plan for Google. Failure here could be devastating to a company trying to beat Microsoft at its favorite game.

Assuming Chrome OS does emerge on netbooks in the next two years,  a lot can happen between now and then. Microsoft Windows XP could be thrashing the netbook space. For all of the glory that Ubuntu on Asus EEE PCS has brought to the Linux space, Linux is not the most user-friendly distribution for people groomed on Windows.

IDC analyst Al Gillen told eWEEK that two things could happen. Google could bring great success to Linux, assuming that Chrome OS manifests itself as a Linux-based distribution such as Ubuntu and Red Hat. Or maybe the "applications don't run on conventional Linux, maybe it's a 'start-from-scratch' approach."

This would be bad for everyone, Gillen argued, because Linux already has a healthy ecosystem: "If Google adds too much customization, and ends up forking the code in the process, that creates an interesting dilemma for the greater Linux community - does the community endorse Google's approach, or does the community unite to encourage Google to not fork the base OS? Two Linux kernels is not better than one."

However, if Google is introducing an entirely new windowing environment, Gillen believes Google can really differentiate itself without disrupting the application portfolio that exists for Linux.

"I can see a scenario where Google could take the desktop into the future, and offer true integration of the Web into the desktop -- something that, to date, we really have not seen," Gillen wrote. Then again, the Intel-led open-source Moblin effort is doing some of this in netbooks, so is Google only further fragmenting the market?

This wouldn't be the first time Google has been accused of fragmentation in the market; Sun Microsystems believes Android only creates another fork for Java. Clearly, many questions remain. When will Google provide the answers?