The economy and Wall Street rumblings are casting a pall over IT budgets, but there could be light at the end of next year.
As
the economy goes, so goes IT. Right now, the lackluster economy-made darker by
the recent collapse of Lehman Brothers and the acquisition of one-time
powerhouse Merrill Lynch by Bank of America-is casting a pall over 2009 IT
budget planning. Even so, some experts say the second half of 2009 could see a
return to brighter days.
"We're
going to play it by ear until next year," said Jim Michael, associate director
of IT services for California State University and vice president of SHARE, an
association of IT professionals. "How soon will we feel the effects of recovery?
The state budget might not recover as quickly as private industry. It's
definitely wait and see."
The
current doldrums in IT spending began in 2008 following a strong year in 2007.
"2009 and 2008 are going to be one and the same; we've tapered down from
2006-2007," said Paul Tinnirello, CIO of a company in the insurance information
business. Robert Rosen, CIO of the
National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and an
eWEEK Corporate Partner, took a similar view: "At the very best, [our budget]
will be flat. With the cost of living, it's effectively a cut."
Analysts
said the economy is dictating the pace of IT spending.
"It's
all about the economy-that's underlined by all of our surveys," said Stephen
Minton, an analyst at IDC, pointing
to his company's interviews of IT professionals. "They've told us pretty clearly
that the only reason for them to be pulling back on tech projects is because of
the economy. Banks, retailers, wholesalers, construction companies-all those
that have felt the slowdown of the economy-they are being forced to cut back on
their tech spending," Minton said.
Forrester
Research analyst Andrew Bartels said his company assumes a recession in late
2008 that will carry over into 2009. "Consumer spending showed a decline in real
terms in July 2008, and there is weak growth in personal income," Bartels said.
"Stimulus checks have been propping things up, and U. S.
exports were propped up by the weak dollar. Europe is slowing, and Japan
seems to be in recession. Consumers look like they're going to be hitting a
wall."
IT
execs are taking note, Bartels said: "They're going to be looking at an economy
that will be looking pretty feeble during the budgeting process, so they'll be
approaching 2009 very cautiously and very conservatively in terms of
spending."
Stan Gibson is Executive Editor of eWEEK. In addition to taking part in Ziff Davis eSeminars and taking charge of special editorial projects, his columns and editorials appear regularly in both the print and online editions of eWEEK. He is chairman of eWEEK's Editorial Board, which received the 1999 Jesse H. Neal Award of the American Business Press. In ten years at eWEEK, Gibson has served eWEEK (formerly PC Week) as Executive Editor/eBiz Strategies, Deputy News Editor, Networking Editor, Assignment Editor and Department Editor. His Webcast program, 'Take Down,' appeared on Zcast.tv. He has appeared on many radio and television programs including TechTV, CNBC, PBS, WBZ-Boston, WEVD New York and New England Cable News. Gibson has appeared as keynoter at many conferences, including CAMP Expo, Society for Information Management, and the Technology Managers Forum. A 19-year veteran covering information technology, he was previously News Editor at Communications Week and was Software Editor and Systems Editor at Computerworld.
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