The Apple iPad, despite a mountain of competitors running Android, QNX and webOS, is expected to hang on to its majority tablet market share through 2015, according to Gartner.
ever-expanding number of competitors is expected to continue nibbling away at
its tablet market share lead, but Apple will continue to dominate for some
time, holding onto the market-share majority through at least 2015, according
to market research firm Gartner.
In an April 11
report, Gartner put Apple's 2010 year-end market share tally at 84 percent. By
the end of 2011, the analysts expect that to have dropped to 69 percent. It will
continue falling, but Apple will still command 47 percent by 2015-while
Android's market share climbs from 14 percent in 2010 to 24 percent in 2012 and
39 percent in 2015.
is seeing the results of the rapidly growing number of competitors. According
to Strategy Analytics, Apple's tablet market share was 96 percent during the third quarter of 2010
IDC analysts said it dropped to 73 percent the following quarter.
should retain the lion's share is remarkable, considering the dozens of brands-including
industry leaders such as HTC, Samsung and Motorola-that have chosen Android for
their tablet platforms. As much as Apple is doing things right, it appears its
competitors have initially also gotten the game wrong, focusing on hardware
before leveraging the platform ecosystem, Gartner Vice President Carolina
Milanesi said in a statement.
making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone,
as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and
overall user experience," said Milanesi. "Tablets will be much more
dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors
realize that, the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with
She added that
consumers will want a tablet running the same OS as their smartphones.
developing on Android should be prepared to see more cross-brand ownership as
some users might put OS over brand when it comes to the purchasing
decision," Milanesi said.
forecast sales of Android tablets to jump from 2.5 million units in 2010 to
nearly 14 million units 2011, 26 million-plus by 2012 and 113.5 million units
place, QNX, the software run by Research In Motion's upcoming BlackBerry
PlayBook tablet, is expected to account for 4 million units this year, before
gradually climbing to 29.5 million by 2015.
Milanesi, it will take some time "and significant effort" for RIM to
attract developers and create an ecosystem as viable as Android or Apple's iOS.
Accounting for the figures, she said, will be "mainly organizations that
will be interested in RIM's tablets because they either already have RIM's
infrastructure deployed or have stringent security requirements."
RIM, which has very high hopes for the PlayBook
, will launch
the tablet in 20,000-plus retail outlets April 19.
Gartner said, will be webOS-the platform Hewlett-Packard purchased from Palm
and plans to include on not only its TouchPad tablets but all of its PCs
(in addition to a Microsoft
OS), beginning in 2012. That ultimately will create, in the words of HP CEO Leo
Apotheker, a "massive platform."
By year's end,
webOS is expected to account for 3 million units, for 4 percent market share,
before climbing to 4 million units and 4 percent market share, and 9 million
units in 2012, but just 3 percent market share by 2015.
In total, the
tablet market is expected to finish out 2011 with nearly 70 million tablets
sold. By 2012, that's expected to reach more than 108 million, and by 2015,
Gartner expects the total to come in at 294 million units.
Principal Analyst Roberta Cozza said volume would be driven by "support
from many players, the ecosystem of applications for tablets getting more
competitive and some platform flexibility allowing lower price points."
however-in part due to the new licensing model that Google introduced with
"Honeycomb," its name for the tablet-geared Android 3.0-"will
drop at a slower pace than what we have seen in the smartphone market,"