Sales of tablets will continue to skyrocket over the next few years, but most of them will be based on ARM chips, Android and Apple's iOS, not Intel and Microsoft, Goldman Sachs says.
The booming tablet PC market could prove to be an increasingly larger challenge
for both Intel and Microsoft, according to an analyst at Goldman Sachs.
a research note released Dec. 13, Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope noted that
while the tablet market-reinvigorated by Apple's release earlier this year of
the iPad-will continue to grow, much of those sales will be of devices powered
by ARM-designed processors and running
Google's Android operating system or Apple's iOS. Goldman Sachs expects
that 54.7 million tablets will be sold in 2011.
this is the case and our tablet forecast is anywhere near accurate, this would
be the first time in three decades that a non-Wintel technology has made
legitimate inroads into personal computing," Shope wrote.
said the rapid growth of the tablet space was anticipated. However, what
platforms have become popular for tablet makers-and which ones haven't-wasn't
rush of iPad competitors is not surprising in itself, as Apple tends to
regularly define the direction of the electronic media and computing
industries," Shope wrote. "What is surprising is that many of these
products are not utilizing Intel microprocessors or a Microsoft operating
and Microsoft are going to need to become larger participants in the tablet
space, because the devices promise to eat into PC sales, according to Goldman
Sachs. In its report, the firm said tablet sales could erode laptop and netbook
sales by a third. Microsoft and its partners have been too slow in responding
to the rise of tablets, giving Apple and Google a significant head start.
at both Microsoft and Intel say their companies expect to become significant
players in the tablet space. During a call in October to announce the company's
third-quarter financial numbers, Intel President and CEO
Paul Otellini said Intel will be aggressive in pursuing the market.
will use all of the assets at our disposal to win this segment," Otellini
said at the time. "We fully expect to participate fully and broadly in
rejuvenated a stagnant market with the launch of the iPad, and now dominates
the fast growing space with about 95 percent market share. However, a spate of
vendors-from Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Lenovo to Samsung, Cisco Systems and
BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion-have rolled out their own tablets or are
planning to in the coming year.
already is looking to push its way deeper into the tablet space. At the Intel
Developer Forum in September, the chip maker showed off a number of Atom-based
tablets that were in the works, and more devices reportedly are being readied
for the CES (Consumer Electronics Show) 2011 in January in Las
also is gearing up to release two Atom platforms in 2011 aimed at the tablet
market-"Oak Trail" for systems running Microsoft's Windows OS and "Moorestown"
for devices running Google's Android OS or MeeGo, a Linux-based operating
system developed by Intel and Nokia.
another event earlier this month, Otellini said tablet manufacturers are
getting ready to use Atom
in 35 different tablet designs
. While he spoke, a slide behind him listed a
number of those vendors, including Dell, Asus, Lenovo and Toshiba.
further focus on the market segment, Intel this month created its Netbook and
Tablet Group, which will be part of the company's Embedded and Communications
Sachs analyst Sarah Friar in the report said that it appeared that a "tablet
response is still not forthcoming," and noted that earlier this year,
Microsoft officials said Windows 7-powered tablets would be on sale by
Christmas. Now talk is of early 2011.
also has tablet plans for 2011. CEO Steve
Ballmer reportedly will introduce a number of Windows
at CES. The New York Times, quoting unnamed sources, said
among the vendors introducing Windows 7 tablets will be Dell and Samsung.
may also show off a tablet running Microsoft's as-yet-unreleased Windows 8
operating system, according to the Times story.
analysts say Microsoft will be able to make inroads into the tablet space,
which market research firm iSuppli said will grow from 13.8 million units
shipped in 2010 to 63.3 million by 2012.
"Even with Microsoft's stumbles to date in tablets," iSuppli said
in a Dec. 14 report, "iSuppli believes that Microsoft will figure out how
to design a functional tablet operating system."