Opinion: Proper forecasting for St. Patricks Day requires localization, not luck.Along with other increasingly mainstreamed ethnic holidays such as Cinco de Mayo, St. Patricks Day has become an event that retailers do their best to capitalize on with a variety of themed products. More power to them, but in my own humble observation, most of them are not doing a very good job of it.
Lets start with a basic fact. While there is truth to the old adage Everyone is Irish on St. Patricks Day, it is still a holiday most heavily celebrated in areas with a large Irish population. I hail from the Boston area, where St. Paddys is colloquially referred to as Irish New Year, and its a big event. Other metro areas with a historically large population of people claiming Irish heritage include New York, Chicago and Philadelphia.
Why is this relevant? Because many of the countrys Irish population centers (such as the ones named above) are in cold-weather climates. Yet walk into your local outlet of a major department or discount store chain anywhere in the country, and what do you see? Graphic T-shirts with a whole slew of St. Paddys- and Irish-themed messages and logos.
Great idea in theory. Undoubtedly these retailers, who in recent years have done an excellent job in merchandising graphic T-shirts, plop St. Patricks Day into their forecasting engines and schedule production runs of holiday-themed short-sleeved attire.
But theres one little problem. In far too many of the areas where St. Patricks Day is most popular, March is not shirt-sleeve weather. I can assure you that barring abnormal conditions, Bostons St. Paddys revelers are only wearing their Kiss Me Im Irish T-shirts under layers of thick, warm green clothing.
Thats where the money is in the northern part of the country, folks. Go to a St. Patricks Day party in Boston and you will see green sweaters and sweatshirts everywhere you look, but nary a T-shirt will be found. All a retailer really needs to do in these parts is to stock up on extra green warm-weather clothing and promote it for St. Paddys wear.
Also, anything with long sleeves and a Boston Celtics or Notre Dame leprechaun logo is popular with Irish-Americans most anywhere you go. (Disclaimer: Despite the authors French-Canadian surname, he is fully 50 percent Irish, so hes entitled to make these broad generalizations.)
So to all you Targets, Old Navys, etc., out there, start localizing your St. Patricks Day 2009 forecasts now. Take the weather into account. Your merchandising software doesnt realize that a skimpy T-shirt offers little comfort to someone watching the Chicago River get dyed green in local March temperatures that on average top out at 45 degrees, but your merchants should. Add the human element to your automated holiday planning and watch your next St. Patricks Day turn very green, indeed. Slainte!
Dan Berthiaume covers IT in the retail space for eWEEK. For more industry news, go to eWEEK.coms Retail Site.