Doing Business with Mainframe Emulators Might Not Hurt IBM
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But
in fact, IBM could decide to do business
with the makers of emulators. The reason is simple, and is a lesson that IBM
learned the last time this happened. IBM
makes a lot of money out of selling its operating systems. This is revenue that
IBM wouldn't receive otherwise. It's
unlikely to cannibalize mainframe sales because it's unlikely that buyers of an
x86 server are really customers that would buy a mainframe.
But
what will happen is that those same users will find out that IBM
figured out virtualization a very long time ago. They'll learn that IBM
mainframe operating systems are stable, robust and flexible. This is why IBM
continues to sell mainframes in this day of standards-based servers.
But if IBM treats the emulator makers as a marketing opportunity instead of competition, the company will learn something else, too. Just as was the case back in the day, IBM's software customers will eventually come to realize that there's something to be said for the real mainframe hardware when it comes to high-end jobs. Now that IBM's mainframes are primarily designed as servers rather than multiuser machines with 3270 terminals, moving up to a mainframe from an emulated device running on an x86 server should be pretty easy.
Ultimately,
IBM could find itself making a lot of money
by letting the emulators buy its operating system because the company gets the
licensing fees, but doesn't have to do anything to sell it. It's basically free
money. Some of the users, meanwhile, will discover that they like what IBM
has to offer and will move to real mainframe platforms, bringing the company
business it wouldn't have had otherwise.
The
EC Competition Commissioner, meanwhile, will find that IBM's
mainframe business is a large, but not overwhelming, part of a rather small
pie. While I haven't been able to find specific figures, it's likely that Apple
is a much larger player in the computer world than is the IBM
mainframe business. The remainder of the mainframe business in Europe,
meanwhile, is alive and well and isn't threatened by IBM.
But
the thought of Apple does bring up another question. Isn't that company, which
is far larger than IBM's mainframe business,
doing exactly the same thing as IBM? You can't
buy Apple's products except as bundles. You can't buy Mac OS for anything but a
Mac. So if the EC is investigating IBM,
shouldn't it also be investigating Apple? Or is the EC playing favorites again?
But if IBM treats the emulator makers as a marketing opportunity instead of competition, the company will learn something else, too. Just as was the case back in the day, IBM's software customers will eventually come to realize that there's something to be said for the real mainframe hardware when it comes to high-end jobs. Now that IBM's mainframes are primarily designed as servers rather than multiuser machines with 3270 terminals, moving up to a mainframe from an emulated device running on an x86 server should be pretty easy.
Wayne Rash is a Senior Analyst for eWEEK Labs and runs the magazineÃÃÃs Washington Bureau. Prior to joining eWEEK as a Senior Writer on wireless technology, he was a Senior Contributing Editor and previously a Senior Analyst in the InfoWorld Test Center. He was also a reviewer for Federal Computer Week and Information Security Magazine. Previously, he ran the reviews and events departments at CMP's InternetWeek.He is a retired naval officer, a former principal at American Management Systems and a long-time columnist for Byte Magazine. He is a regular contributor to Plane & Pilot Magazine and The Washington Post.
