Opinion: Tech bubbles are very predictable, and the inevitable burst may not be bad.
In recent months, an increasing number of technology analysts and pundits have started to sound the alarm that we are on the cusp of another technology bubble burstin this case, the Web 2.0 bubble. If you expect me to disagree with these pundits, guess again.
Of course another bubble burst is coming.
All of this talk about bubbles got me thinking about the classic cycles of busts. Because when you analyze past technology bubbles, youll always see the same progression from pure technology to pure marketing. By paying attention to this progression, you might even be able to tell when a bubble is getting too big for its own good and is likely to burst.
So how does one begin to build a technology bubble? At the beginning of a bubble, its all technology. This is the point of entry of the inventers. These are the people who have the idea of a new groundbreaking technology, such as e-commerce, social networking, PC software, whatever. At this end of the spectrum, the participants are brilliant technologically but have no marketing skills whatsoever. The only people who are paying attention to their breakthroughs are those with similar technological inclinations.
The next phase is where the innovative entrepreneurs come in. These players understand the technology but also have enough marketing skills and salesmanship to build products that people actually want, and they are able to start real buzz around a new technology.
This leads to the equilibrium point for technology and marketing. This is also the stage in a technology bubble where the biggest, best and most enduring solutions are createdwhether its Microsoft, Amazon, Google or eBay.
Unfortunately, this is also the stage in which the people who are all marketing and no technology decide that its time to get in on the action. You know who these "entrepreneurs" are. These are the snake oil salesmen. The people who talk a good game and can convince anyone from venture capitalists to the press to the general public that they have the biggest, coolest, most important new thing out there.
So what if their product doesnt do anything, or has no way to actually make money, or is a bad version of another product thats already out there? These players are so good at marketing themselves and their products that they are able to generate irrational exuberance.
But all these people are really supplying is a bunch of hot air. And you know what happens to bubbles when they get too full of hot air.
And so the bubble bursts, taking down the shameful hucksters who caused the burst (though also typically taking down a few legitimate companies that deserved better).
Click here to read about an exercise in Web 2.0 fun called twittering.
But the bubble burst isnt always a bad thing. For the technologies involved, it can be a cleansing experience. With all the hype and hot air removed, the technology can settle down to doing its intended job. After all, despite the damage of the .com bust, e-commerce is doing just fine.
So keep an eye on your bubble cycles and know when to avoid the hot air. And, remember: Somewhere out there right now is a technology-savvy and marketing-weak inventor who is starting the first puffs for a whole new technology bubble.
Chief Technology Analyst Jim Rapoza can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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