Analysts at Gartner and IDC say new Intel and AMD processors are fueling a recovery in shipments of x86 servers from the likes of HP, Dell and IBM. Intel's "Nehalem EP" Xeons and AMD's "Istanbul" Opterons in 2009 helped kick-start the momentum that rolled into the fourth quarter, and new processors from both chip makers this quarter will continue the growth into 2010.
A week ago, executives with both Hewlett-Packard and Dell, while talking
about their latest
quarterly financial numbers, pointed to the increase in x86 server sales in
the final few months of 2009.
HP saw a 27 percent revenue increase in its industry-standard
server business in the quarter, while Dell saw server revenues grow 26 percent.
And both HP President and CEO
Mark Hurd and Michael Dell, his counterpart at Dell, said they expect the
momentum in their respective server businesses to continue in 2010 as
corporations look to refresh their aging systems with the newest generation of
machines powered by the latest chips from Intel and Advanced Micro Devices that
offer greater performance and energy efficiency, and lower capital and
operating costs.
"We do see a pretty robust refresh cycle throughout the
year," Hurd said during a conference call with reporters and analysts Feb.
17.
The latest numbers from research firms Gartner and IDC
back up those claims. In reports issued Feb. 24, both firms said that
fourth-quarter 2009 shipments increased while revenues declined year over year.
However, sales in the x86 space began to pick up in the third quarter, thanks
in large part to the new processors from Intel and AMD,
and that momentum continued into the fourth quarter.
Intel rolled out its Xeon 5500 Series "Nehalem EP" chips, while
AMD ran out its six-core "Istanbul"
Opteron.
"Going into 2009, we saw a very large drop off in the first and
second quarters, especially for x86," IDC
analyst Dan Harrington said in an e-mail. "What we saw with the release of the
new chip technologies was somewhat of a pent-up demand for the new products,
which caused significant pop in Q3 and into Q4. End-users had very limited
budget in 2009, and ... those that were able to live with their existing
infrastructure did so until the release of these new server offerings."
Gartner analyst Jeffrey Hewitt said the numbers, though, had to
be looked at with the global recession in mind.
"It is important to put this into context," Hewitt said in a
statement. "The fourth quarter of 2008 was quite weak, so the fourth quarter of
2009 did not have to produce huge x86 server numbers to result in an increase."
Gartner said that in the fourth quarter, global server
shipments grew 4.5 percent over the same period in 2008, while revenues
declined 3.2 percent. Like IDC, Gartner said
IBM retained an edge over HP in revenue.
Gartner also had HP, Dell and IBM as the top
three in shipments, respectively.
IDC said that in the
quarter, worldwide server shipments were up 1.9 percent, to 1.9 million units,
while revenues were down 3.9 percent, to $13 billion. The x86 server market saw
revenues grow 12.6 percent and shipments jump 3.8 percent.
Both research firms said blade systems also saw shipments and
revenues grow, while the non-x86 server market-including Unix systems-fell in
both shipments and revenues.
IDC's Harrington said he
expects the momentum for x86 systems to continue into 2010, particularly in the
higher end, as Intel prepares to release its eight-core "Nehalem EX" Xeons and AMD
readies the eight- to 12-core "Magny-Cours"
Opterons for release in March.
"As both AMD and Intel
release new higher-end chips this year, including Magny-Cours and Nehalem EX,
we expect there to be continued interest in x86, especially as a potential
substitute for some more expensive low- to mid-range non-x86 solutions," he
said.
In speaking with reporters and analysts Feb. 18, Dell
agreed.
"As we go to Nehalem EX, the ROI [for customers] just goes
higher, and it becomes much more compelling," Dell said. "The age of
the installed base is significant, and our customers are seeing a refresh as a
productivity enabler."
Harrington said the non-x86 space saw unseasonable weakness in
the fourth quarter, not only due to the growing strength of the x86 systems,
but also because customers were waiting for new systems based on IBM's
Power7 processors and HP Integrity servers running on Intel's new Itanium
9300 "Tukwila" chips. Both new platforms were released Feb. 8.
In addition, customers were awaiting further clarification
about the future of Sun Microsystems' SPARC/Solaris systems after Oracle
completed its $7.4
billion acquisition of Sun in January.
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