Despite the dour global economic situation, the tech market will see strong growth in 2011, according to Forrester. However, that growth will slow to 5.5 percent in 2012.
the worsening global economic environment, IT spending in the United States and
around the world will continue to be relatively strong through the end of 2011,
while slowing although still growing next year, according to analysts at
analysts in July were preparing to release their second-half IT projections,
but put those on hold to see how certain global issues played out, in
particular the debt
ceiling debate in the United States
and the ongoing economic crisis in
better idea of the direction of those and other issues, Forrester analysts said
Sept. 20 that worldwide IT spending will increase 11.5 percent in 2011. While
it will slow in 2012, there still will be 5.5 percent grow, they said.
United States, the difficult economic climate won't really hit the IT market
until the fourth quarter and going into 2012, Forrester analyst Andrew
Bartels said in a blog post
Sept. 20. A number of factors-from the slowing
gross domestic product numbers to the contentious debt ceiling debate to the
stalling job numbers-have conspired to hamper any economic recovery.
the first two quarters saw strong tech market growth, and the economic weakness
that surfaced in July and August won't be enough to cause any slowing in tech
growth until Q4 2011," Bartels wrote. "While the risk of renewed
recession has certainly increased, we think that the most likely scenario is
very low, but still positive, economic growth."
situation in Europe is more difficult, he said. A number of
countries-particularly Greece, but also Italy, Portugal and Spain-are dealing
with high debt and low growth, as well as what Bartels called "structural
rigidities," all of which could have a domino effect on banks, which could
trigger another financial crisis similar to what hit in 2008 after Lehman
only good news for the tech market in this dire picture is that the heavily
indebted countries are relatively small parts of the European tech market,
where the healthier economies of the Nordics, the UK, Germany, France, Benelux,
Austria and Switzerland are also much bigger buyers of tech goods and
services," Bartels wrote.
that, growth in Europe in 2012 will be 4.3 percent, less than Forrester's
earlier projection of 6.8 percent.
contrast to what will happen in the United States and Europe, emerging markets
such as Latin America, and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) will
see double-digit growth, he said. EEMEA will be buoyed by high prices of oil
and natural resources this year and next, while Latin America will benefit from
its natural resources and manufacturing exports. The weak U.S. dollar also will
benefit Canada, Western and Central Europe, and Asia Pacific, according to
Forrester. However, Asia Pacific could see slower growth in 2011 due to the
fallout from the
earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan
in March. That said, there will be a
strong recovery-related rebound in growth in 2012.
all tech categories will see double-digit growth in 2011, but slower growth
next year, according to Forrester.
and computer equipment will have the highest growth in 2011, both with 11.9
percent increases," Bartels wrote.
as all sectors slow, IT consulting and systems integration will have the
strongest growth of 6.6 percent, fueled by the need for implementation projects
from the strong software sales in 2011. Communications equipment will see the
least growth in 2012, at about 4.7 percent, he said.