Market research firm Pike & Fischer predicts the current economic conditions will slow U.S. broadband growth by 12 percent in 2009. Cable companies, the researchers say, will grab most of the growth to be had despite telcos AT&T and Verizon's fiber rollouts--most of their potential customers are still covered only by slower DSL services. President-elect Barack Obama's economic stimulus package, though, could change those predictions.
The troubled U.S. economy will inevitably lead to a
decline in new broadband connections in 2009 unless President-elect Barack
Obama is successful in expanding broadband availability as part of his economic
stimulus package, according to a new forecast by market research firm Pike
& Fischer. Based on current conditions, P&K predicts a 12 percent
decline this year for high-speed connections.
The researchers, based in Silver Spring, Md., anticipate
approximately 5.7 million U.S. households will become new high-speed Internet
customers this year, bringing the total number of broadband-connected homes to
74.5 million. That would represent 63 percent of U.S. households.
P&K also predicts the chief beneficiaries of the
broadband growth will be cable companies, which are predicted to capture 75
percent of the new growth. According to P&K, while telephone companies such
as AT&T and Verizon are successfully rolling out new fiber-optic Internet
services that can exceed the speeds offered by cable, most of their service
areas are still covered only by DSL service, which is slower than cable modem
offerings.
Resource Library:
Obama's economic stimulus plan, though, could change
P&K's predictions.
"Government initiatives, such as tax incentives and
loan guarantees to help expand broadband infrastructure into underserved areas,
could enable service providers to bolster their customer counts," Scott
Sleek, director of P&F's Broadband Advisory, said in a statement. "In
addition, policymakers are likely to support training and education programs
aimed at increasing customer adoption of broadband. These steps could offset
what will be an inevitable slowdown in subscriber growth."
Obama
said Dec. 6 that investing heavily in computers and broadband connections
for schools and hospitals will be part of his immediate economic recovery plans
after he takes office Jan. 20. Obama added that part of the
plan is to "renew our information superhighway. It is unacceptable that
the United States ranks 15th in the world in broadband adoption. Here, in the
country that invented the Internet, every child should have the chance to get
online, and they'll get that chance when I'm presidentbecause that's how we'll
strengthen America's competitiveness in the world."
In addition to connecting schools and libraries to
broadband connections, Obama promised a renewed push for health care IT, which
President Bush has also touted as a key to saving millions in health care
costs. Bush's health care IT initiatives, though, have failed to gain
traction over costs, security and privacy concerns.
"We
will make sure that every doctor's office and hospital in this country is using
cutting-edge technology and electronic medical records so that we can cut red
tape, prevent medical mistakes and help save billions of dollars each
year," Obama said.
IT Infrastructure 
