Weve Seen This Cycle Before
We are all worried, justifiably, by the economic slowdown, and in the technology sector in particularWe are all worried, justifiably, by the economic slowdown, and in the technology sector in particular. But theres one thing we do know for sure: Things will get better. Call it the economic corollary of gravity; whatever goes down, must come up. That axiom may not apply to certain dot-com stocks hovering around 50 cents a share, but it does apply to the economy as a whole. The overall skittishness about the downturn is really more a factor of the uncertainty of when that downturn will reverse itself. The problem with this reassurance is that many of those with an interest in technology have no faith that things will get better; they believe the bubble has burst permanently. But a theme of a recent conference I attended was that we are in a larger cycle of the economics of new markets that has repeated itself many times.
As a result, this particular downturn presents unique opportunities that could help make sure that technology managers, developers and investors are prepared for growth when things do get better: Invest now for the future. Pundits as diverse as Esther Dyson and Merrill Lynchs Henry Blodgett, who spoke at the Silicon Alley conference this month, agree on this point.