In a week that saw more problems generated by the financial crisis on Wall Street and the overall credit crunch in the United States, Gartner and Forrester Research issued separate reports that trimmed their forecasts for IT spending in 2009. While the ongoing financial crisis might not impact budgets in the fourth quarter of 2008, Forrester and Gartner both believe that IT spending will slow down starting in 2009, with purchases of PCs, servers and storage equipment slowing down first.
ORLANDO, Fla. - With
the ongoing financial crisis and the credit crunch in the United States
, Gartner and Forrester Research have issued separate reports that
point to less IT spending in 2009, with purchases of PCs and servers already
slowing down this year.
its 2008 Symposium/ITxpo
, Gartner analysts released a report that trimmed
the research firm's IT spending forecasts for 2009. Instead of the 5.8 percent
growth that Gartner originally expected, the
downturn in the economy now means that IT spending will only grow 2.3 percent
. Since most IT budgets for 2008 have already been set, Gartner did
not see a significant impact in spending for the fourth quarter.
the cuts in IT spending will not be as dramatic as when the Internet bubble
burst in 2001
, the reductions in spending do mean that the financial crisis
is having an impact both in the United States as well as in Europe and even
emerging market countries such as Russia and Brazil.
"Developed economies, especially in the United
States and Western Europe,
will be the worst affected, but emerging regions will not be immune," Peter
Sondergaard, the global head of research at Gartner, wrote in the Oct. 13
report. "Europe will experience negative growth in 2009,
the United States
and Japan will
The big difference between now and 2001 is that IT is much
more integrated into the day-to-day operations of most companies, which makes
it much harder to blindly slash IT budgets when economy grinds to a halt,
according to Gartner.
With all the strains on the global financial market,
Forrester Research analysts believe that IT spending will be flat until 2010.
In an Oct. 15 report, Forrester trimmed its U.S. IT spending forecast from 6
percent growth in 2009, to 2 or 3 percent growth. In the global IT market,
Forrester downgraded its 2009 IT growth forecast from 8 percent to about 4
In the Forrester report, Andrew Bartels, an analyst, wrote
companies were already cutting back on purchases of hardware
, such as
desktops, notebooks, servers and storage equipment. Earlier this week, IDC
and Gartner released their third-quarter reports on the worldwide PC market
and while both firms found that desktops and notebook shipments grew by 15
percent, there were signs that consumers and commercial spending were slowing
The quarterly PC reports found that Hewlett-Packard
were still the two largest suppliers of PCs, but both companies were seeing an
impact from the economic slowdown.
"Computer equipment vendors already have been mostly posting
declines in revenue on a year-over-year basis throughout 2008 as CIOs have been
delaying and deferring buying PCs, servers and storage devices," Bartels
wrote. "Communications equipment vendors have seen similar software on the
enterprise market side, although carrier investment has been offsetting that."
While hardware purchases were already slowing down, Bartels
believes that software purchases and IT servers will begin to slow down during
the next three financial quarters. Bartels cited SAP
announcing that the company had begun to see a drop off in new software sales
during the last two weeks of September.
"We think that this was a precursor to poor sales by all
vendors in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first half of 2009," Bartels