There are some adoption theories around Linux, Kapor said, who added that he does not believe desktop Linux will be adopted as a "killer application. Like the server, its adoption will start at the edge and move inward towards the center," he said. The next wave of Linux desktop users will be transactional workers who use computers to perform well-defined tasks, like in a call center, where some 2 million people work, "even though none of them seem to be around when I get on the phone," Kapor quipped.On the consumer and worker productivity side, large-scale adoption is unlikely before 2007, Kapor said, particularly as the breadth of applications available on Linux today is lacking. And the OpenOffice productivity suite does not have the polish of Microsoft Office. "Im not going to tell you that Linux is going to take over the desktop world, but it will significantly grow its share," Kapor said. "Because of the momentum around Linux, we will see price cuts by Microsoft. It would not surprise me to see 10 percent of global desktops running Linux in the near future. The rest of the world is leading the U.S. in terms of Linux, and I expect that to continue. Foreign governments are also embracing Linux more so than here." Kapor also announced the Opensector.org Web site, launched today, where announcements of Linux deployments and research will be published and posted. "Im excited because this is a huge improvement from where we were. Desktop Linux is already a solution for millions of people around the world and will be a solution for tens of millions of people going forward," he concluded.
IT managers in the call centers are increasingly looking at replacing their desktops with Linux and, beginning next year, the industry will see some significant numbers from that and other vertical segments, he said.