Apple, Facebook Driving Big Mobile Internet Changes, Says Report
Morgan Stanley predicts that within five years more users will access the Internet using mobile devices than via desktop PCs. The change is part of a new tech cycle, encouraged, in part, by Apple, Facebook, Google and Amazon.com, as well as devices such as Apple's expected tablet PC.Within five years, more people will be connecting to the Internet via mobile devices than via desktop PCs. This good news for carriers, handset makers and software developers comes from Morgan Stanley's "The Mobile Internet Report," released Dec. 15. Other key points in the 424-page report-available free-are that the "mobile Internet cycle," which the Morgan Stanley analyst team, led by Mary Meeker, dubs the fifth computing cycle in 50 years, is just getting started, and offers no promises to winners of past cycles. "New winners emerge, some incumbents survive-or thrive-while many past winners falter," stated the report.
Social networking, 3G network adoption, video, VOIP (voice over IP) and "impressive mobile devices" are named as the five IP-based products and services providing the underpinnings for the team's high expectations for mobile Internet usage.
"And we think the odds are that they are right-sometime in 2010, Apple likely will launch another record-setting, transformative wireless device. Make no mistake, Apple (and others) are not just trying to upset the cell phone market. They are aiming to transform how communications works, how entertainment and news are distributed, how goods and services are purchased ... and how we control all this stuff from the ever-expanding, rechargeable remote controls we carry in our hands."As Apple iPhones and similar devices encourage 3G adoption and growing consumer use of a range of IP-based usage models over various mobile devices, Morgan Stanley expects smartphone sales to surpass the global notebook and netbook market in 2010, and to surpass the global, overall PC market in 2012. While Apple is poised to be a short-term winner in the new cycle, the report added, "[In the] longer term, Google Android's open operating system (combined with clever device manufacturers), emerging markets competition and carrier limitations may pose challenges to Apple's market share upside. RIM [Research In Motion] may maintain the enterprise lead, thanks to its installed base, but the long-term outlook is challenging."