Apple iPad Preorders May Be Falling Off After Strong First Day
Apple may have sold 120,000 iPads on its first day of preorders March 12, according to analyst estimates. Those same analysts are also predicting the perhaps inevitable falloff in preorders. According to their estimates, nearly 70 percent of preorders are for iPads with WiFi, as opposed to the WiFi and 3G-enabled version, and orders were almost evenly split between the 16GB, 32GB and 64GB versions. Apple predicts that some 150,000 apps will be available upon launch for the 9.7-inch tablet PC, and has already begun its marketing push ahead of the iPad's April 3 release.Daniel Tello, a blogger and analyst, leveraged data supplied by volunteers to arrive at an estimation of 120,000 iPads sold via Apple's Website March 12, the inaugural day that Apple opened the device to preorders. That number included 50,000 iPads sold within a single two-hour period. The iPad is slated to go on sale April 3. Following that initial spike, however, Tello estimates that sales of the tablet PC have, perhaps predictably, evolved "into a relatively straight line slightly sloping up." Once preorders cross the 100- to 150-hour mark, "a new, more subtle" curve will form "in which the slope will very slowly get shallower as the days and weeks pass."
Tello posted visualizations of his work on the Deagol's AAPL Model blog; Deagol, Tello's blogging pseudonym, is the name of the hobbit in J.R.R. Tolkien's "The Fellowship of the Ring" who takes possession of the titular gold band for 30 seconds before being strangled by Gollum. In conjunction with other members of Investor Village's AAPL Sanity forum, including Victor Castroll of Valcent Financial Group, Tello extrapolated from a 99-order sample over 19.5 hours to reach an estimate of 119,987 iPads preordered.