Apple may have sold 120,000 iPads on its first day of preorders March 12, according to analyst estimates. Those same analysts are also predicting the perhaps inevitable falloff in preorders. According to their estimates, nearly 70 percent of preorders are for iPads with WiFi, as opposed to the WiFi and 3G-enabled version, and orders were almost evenly split between the 16GB, 32GB and 64GB versions. Apple predicts that some 150,000 apps will be available upon launch for the 9.7-inch tablet PC, and has already begun its marketing push ahead of the iPad's April 3 release.
Daniel Tello, a blogger and analyst,
leveraged data supplied by volunteers to arrive at an estimation of 120,000
iPads sold via Apple's Website March 12, the inaugural day that Apple
opened the device to preorders. That number included 50,000 iPads sold within
a single two-hour period. The iPad is slated to go on sale April 3.
Following that initial spike, however, Tello estimates that
sales of the tablet PC have, perhaps predictably, evolved "into a
straight line slightly sloping up." Once preorders cross the
100- to 150-hour mark, "a new, more subtle" curve will form "in
which the slope will very slowly get shallower as the days and weeks
Tello posted visualizations of his work on the Deagol's AAPL Model
Tello's blogging pseudonym, is the name of the hobbit in J.R.R. Tolkien's "The
Fellowship of the Ring" who takes possession of the titular gold band for 30 seconds before being strangled by Gollum. In
conjunction with other members of Investor Village's AAPL Sanity forum,
including Victor Castroll of Valcent Financial Group, Tello extrapolated from a
99-order sample over 19.5 hours to reach an estimate of 119,987 iPads
The group's math is more fully discussed on the actual AAPL
Sanity message board, viewable
Of those preorders, 69 percent of customers apparently
gravitated toward the WiFi version of the device, while the remaining 31
percent opted for the WiFi and 3G-enabled version. Some 33 percent preferred
the 16GB version of the device, 32 percent selected the 32GB, and 33 percent
went for the 64GB.
Apple has imposed an iPad pre-order limit of two per
customer. Those ordering the WiFi and 3G-enabled version of the device will
apparently need to wait until "late April" to actually take delivery, according
to Apple's Website. The contract-free AT&T 3G data plan sells for 250MB per
month at $14.99, or unlimited for $29.99.
The 16GB version of the iPad costs $499 with WiFi, and $629
with WiFi and 3G. The 32GB version costs $599 with WiFi, and $729 with WiFi
and 3G. The 64GB version costs $699 with WiFi, and $829 with WiFi and 3G.
The marketing push for the iPad has begun in earnest, with a
30-second television commercial airing during the March 7 telecast of the
Academy Awards that demonstrated the device's abilities as an e-reader,
scheduler, Web-surfer and e-mail platform. That advertisement also displayed
details of the iPad's user interface, including an iPhone-like "Slide to
Unlock" bar, an iBookstore for e-books, and an iWork productivity suite
optimized for touch.
Apple claims that some 150,000 apps will be available for
the iPad upon launch, and has been encouraging developers to build those apps
via the iPhone SDK 3.2 beta. Apple's App Store will feature 300,000 apps by the
end of 2010, according to research firm IDC, which gives the company a sizable
advantage in the mobile-applications category but has nonetheless compelled it
to begin policing the App Store more thoroughly for fraudulent or potentially