IDC said Apple's iAd advertising platform has corralled 21 percent of the mobile ad market in its short life in 2010, tying Google and AdMob together. Others aren't so sure of the split.
Apple iAd was only launched in July but at
least one industry analyst believes the platform has been so successful that it
equals Google's mobile ad revenue share.
IDC analyst Karsten Weide said that Apple iAd
comprises 21 percent of mobile ad sales, tying Google's own 21 percent of
revenues for 2010 after dropping the combined Google-AdMob share from 27
percent of the mobile ad sales pie.
JumpTap, Millenial Media and Yahoo round out
the IDC top 5 list, with 13 percent, 11 percent and 9 percent of mobile ad
revenues, respectively. Microsoft is next, at 7 percent, in a market IDC said
should total $500 million for the year.
When Weide made his proclamation to
BusinessWeek Bloomberg last month, he sent ripples throughout the industry by
those who believed it was too soon for Apple to see so much success.
Even so, Weide told eWEEK he calculated his
numbers by taking Apple's June
that iAd had secured $60 million in contract commitments and added
the existing revenues of Quattro Wireless, the mobile ad startup Apple acquired
to build iAd, for which Apple
charges a hefty $1 million entrance fee.
"Jobs personally called marketers
himself," Weide said, noting that this gesture carried weight with
advertisers such as AT&T, Unilever, Best Buy, Citi Target and The Walt
Disney Studios. "Given that, you can see how [Apple] would arrive at this
kind of revenue."
Moreover, Weide's stats iAd (52 percent) leads AdMob
(36 percent) with developers noting a preference for iAd's richer ad units and higher
Still, the numbers are very fluid. Weide's
tabulation came before high-profile advertisers such as
Adidas and Chanel
backed out because of Apple CEO Steve Jobs' typically
stringent rules for ads that run on applications on his iPhone and iPad
And Weide has his doubters in the industry. Search Engine Land's Greg Sterling,
who watches the mobile ad market
skeptical about the IDC numbers because Google commands the lion's share of
mobile ad searches thanks to a success AdSense for Mobile
Also, Google's acquisition of AdMob, a major
independent player prior to joining Google, sweetens Google's plot in the
After speaking with sources, Sterling said combined mobile ad revenue shares of Google,
Apple, Yahoo and Millennial Media totaled 60 percent.
All else being equal, that's 15 percent share
per company, but one is hard pressed to argue how Google and AdMob together don't
have more than the other providers.
Sterling isn't the only one to dispute the IDC numbers.
Jumptap CMO Paran Johar said iAd may be capturing 21 percent of
the dollars today, but not the impressions or the opportunity.
"They are a very focused on the super
premium brand advertisers willing to spend $1 million minimum while controlling
the brand's creative," Johar said.
Moreover, he said Apple shut down iAd to
mobile Internet publishers, causing a surge in publishers wanting to work with
a partner that is platform agnostic and open. Jumptap is reaping the benefits
of this shift, he added.
While Weide is bullish on iAd in the near
term, he also told eWEEK that Google will "in years to come crush
Apple" because its Android platform will outsell the iPhone.
Indeed, Apple sells a handful of versions of
the same iPhone. As good as that handset is, Android's open source delivery
model has spurred many major phone makers--Motorola, HTC, LG and Samsung--to build more than 60 Android smartphones.
This provides a greater footprint for
application developers to seed their software and generate revenues from mobile
But that will take some time for in-app ads
to foment on Android devices in earnest. For the time being, Weide said the
iPhone and iAd, with richer ads and higher click-through rates, is the more
attractive distribution vehicle in the U.S.
Accordingly so the majority of mobile
marketers are looking at advertising on iPhone and iAd over Android devices and
Google's AdMob unit.