Google Android Dream Phone Faces Low Expectations from Readers

Let's check the criteria against my track record. I'm no geek, but I do love Google. I have no opinion one way or another on Apple. I do love keyboards and, yes, I have held out against the iPhone. Having played around with it, I have to believe that there is something better than this famous smart phone.

We just haven't seen it yet. Could it be the Dream, or one of its descendants?

Here's the kicker. In spite of all his arguments against Dream selling to or beyond expectations (remember, those expectations are 500,000 to 750,000 for most, 1 million for me), Moschops said he will actually buy a Dream! He wrote:

I'm going to buy one so that's at least one unit they will sell. Plus probably every Google employee and their family will get one too, so that's maybe another 10,000. I think we can guarantee they'll sell maybe 200,000 for sure.

Wow. If naysayers are going to buy the Dream, Google and T-Mobile will be in good shape.

There are other arguments against why the Dream would do well early on. Reader Mark noted that the first-generation Android phones will be released without Bluetooth and Microsoft Exchange/ActiveSync, which could kill adoption by corporate road warriors.

Then again, the iPhone wasn't seen as an enterprise mobile gadget out of the gate, but over time, several enterprise software vendors have released applications to support the device, making it more business-friendly.

Finally, Mark added:

I'm surprised you would support your rationale for the number of Android phones that will sell in 2009 by referring to the number of iPhones that have sold. You're comparing a company with decades of experience creating hardware and software products with a company that has little experience at either. I will be surprised if Android sales reach 50 percent of what you are predicting.

Fair enough. It is hard to believe that Dream will do as well for Google and T-Mobile as iPhone did for Apple on that basis. The truth is, we just don't know how buyers will react. I reiterate that the hype will help Dream exceed sales expectations.

Finally, I lean on Gartner's Ken Dulaney, who told me HTC's 600,000 to 700,000 unit shipment expectation is probably an accurate estimate because HTC knows what the various operators have ordered or sold in to the channel. He told me:

People who get it at T-Mobile will be choosing this over an iPhone at AT&T, the LG or Samsung at Verizon at Sprint and potentially the rumored BlackBerry touch-screen at one of these other carriers (probably won't be T-Mobile). My bet is that it won't be as good as the iPhone and that you will see some slowdown. But with the big shift to smart phones there is plenty of room for all these devices to succeed.

How far the hype cycle carries Dream could largely depend on how well T-Mobile, Google, et al. present the smart phone tomorrow in New York.

Wall Street is starving for a reprieve from bad market downslides. A positive unveiling event could help fuel sales, pushing the Dream past the 1 million unit mark by 2009.