Windows Phone 7 Needs Four Things to Succeed

While Microsoft placed the cloud front-and-center at its Worldwide Partner Conference this week, it also devoted substantial amounts of executive talk time—and a substantial booth on the convention-hall floor—to its smartphone initiatives. Microsoft is preparing to launch Windows Phone 7, which it touts as a complete revamp of its mobile platform, sometime near the end of 2010.

"The phone is going through a massive inflection point," Andy Lees, senior vice president of Microsoft's Mobile Communications Business, told an audience during his keynote in Washington, D.C.'s Verizon Center July 13. "There's this immense competition but in many respects, things are just beginning."

Windows Phone 7's approach to the smartphone user interface differs from competitors such as the iPhone, which offers screens of individual applications arranged in a gridlike pattern; Microsoft chose to instead consolidate Web content and applications into subject-specific "Hubs" such as "Office" or "Games." The smartphones will be paired with a new Windows Phone Marketplace, where developers will be able to submit five free applications (rising to $19.99 after that) along with an unlimited number of paid applications.

Given that Windows Phone 7 represents a total reset for Microsoft—devices running its current mobile operating system, Windows Mobile 6.5, will not be able to upgrade—the company needs it to thrive if it wants to maintain a viable position in the smartphone arena, where its market share has been slowly declining over the past few quarters.

Apart from Microsoft's eventual marketing strategy, Windows Phone 7 will likely need the following factors to prove a success.

Quality

Poor hardware or software could doom Windows Phone 7 in short order. Take the case of the iPhone 4: Although Apple sold 1.7 million of the next-generation smartphone within its first three days of release in June, subsequent issues with the device's exterior antenna rim have threatened to tarnish the iPhone's reputation—one established via previous generations of innovative, well-built devices.

Because of those years of accumulated goodwill, the iPhone will almost certainly survive this latest crisis—but newborn Windows Phone 7 doesn't have the user base or status to survive a similar situation. A major hardware defect in one of its devices, or an endemic software bug, could short-circuit a rollout.

In the same spirit, a half-baked release build—loaded with smaller bugs, or sluggish when performing most functions—could lead to the proverbial death of a thousand cuts, with potential users choosing a rival device perceived as more reliable.

Microsoft seems to realize the task for it. "All the stuff has to work pretty well, it has to be quick, it has to be stable," Casey McGee, a spokesperson for Microsoft, told eWEEK in a July 13 interview at WPC. "We need to launch with a marketplace that shows we have a variety of applications that can be used on a daily basis."

In other words, Windows Phone 7 needs to be as perfect as possible from the outset.

Applications Store

Windows Phone 7 needs third-party developers. According to reports, Microsoft has been offering to pay developers of popular iPhone applications to port their wares over to Windows Phone 7; at TechEd in June, Microsoft made a concerted effort to push the platform onto more business-centric designers.

During the WPC, Microsoft prodded developers yet again, with the July 12 release of its Windows Phone Developer Tools Beta. The tools are available from this site.

Windows Phone 7 will leverage Silverlight and XMA to build rich content and 3D games. Features for developers include a Microsoft Location Service, for acquiring location information via a single point of reference; Microsoft Notification Service, for pushing information to the device; Microsoft Visual Studio 2010 Express for Windows Phone; and a Windows Phone 7 Series Emulator for testing.

"The term 'beta' is understood to mean that things are close to finished," Brandon Watson, Microsoft's director of developer experience for Windows Phone 7, wrote in a July 12 posting on The Windows Phone Developer Blog. "It's time to get serious about building the actual apps and games for Windows Phone 7 that consumers will be looking for starting this holiday season."

But third-party developers need the assurance that building apps for Windows Phone 7—and all the costs and human hours associated with that endeavor—will ultimately prove profitable. If Windows Phone 7 devices sell well at the outset—and if those early developers see a resulting cash bounty—then its Marketplace will grow as more developers join the party. 

There are signs of interest in developing for Windows Phone 7. An April survey by Appcelerator, which builds platforms for native mobile- and desktop-application development, found that the percentage of developers "very interested" in Windows Phone 7 platform climbed from 13 percent in January to 34 percent by the end of March. During that same period, interest in BlackBerry development climbed from 21 percent to 43 percent, while interest in Android and the iPhone narrowed to a respective 81 percent and 87 percent.

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