Android Backers Dont Need a Sledgehammer to Make Their Point
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So here's how this all compares with what was the Mac in
1984. Imagine that in those days Apple was contending with a broadly supported
open-source operating system with a vibrant developer community. Imagine that
there was a wealth of hardware support from a variety of manufacturers on a
variety of platforms and processors. Would Apple have even had a chance?
Chances are, it would have, but chances are it wouldn't
have killed off its young clone industry, and chances are it wouldn't have been
able to stay a closed system as it did.
Unfortunately, that's exactly what's happening to the
iPhone now. It's a closed system. Updates come once a year. Software is
dictated by the company. Yes, the iPhone has a healthy market share and a lot
of applications now. But in the face of competition from Verizon, Sprint and
T-Mobile and their steadily increasing supply of Android devices and software,
that's sure to change. As Nick Kolakowski illustrated
in his slide show, the Android market share is already gaining on the iPhone.
With a product cycle that's measured in weeks rather than
years, and a broad range of carriers and manufacturers, that market share
challenge is sure to pick up momentum. Apple, meanwhile, has painted itself
into a corner. The company and the iPhone are running out of ways to
grow.
By November, when Verizon is supposed to get the iPhone,
the company may well have second thoughts. The iPhone is already behind the
technology curve. Even the iPhone 4, which is only just starting to ship, has
been surpassed by the latest
Droid technology, and the Androids have a year's worth of improvements to
take advantage before the next Apple developer's conference. You can guess how
that will work out.
Does this mean that the iPhone is dead? Not really. After
all, the Mac managed to hold on to about a 7 percent market share after all these
years. No doubt it will provide inspiration for other devices if only because
Apple has been truly innovative in some areas. But I think its days as a
dominant platform are ending, and I think aggressive moves by the Android world
are going to end those days more quickly than we currently imagine.
Verizon, Sprint and the others don't need a Sledgehammer
Gal. They've already got what they need to win this war.
Wayne Rash is a Senior Analyst for eWEEK Labs and runs the magazineÃÃÃs Washington Bureau. Prior to joining eWEEK as a Senior Writer on wireless technology, he was a Senior Contributing Editor and previously a Senior Analyst in the InfoWorld Test Center. He was also a reviewer for Federal Computer Week and Information Security Magazine. Previously, he ran the reviews and events departments at CMP's InternetWeek.He is a retired naval officer, a former principal at American Management Systems and a long-time columnist for Byte Magazine. He is a regular contributor to Plane & Pilot Magazine and The Washington Post.
