LeapFrog Enterprises may enjoy strong demand for its educational toys, but the Emeryville, Calif. manufacturer could use a primer on how a supply chain needs to work as Christmas approaches.
The basic lesson: a company should think twice before putting off the deployment of new software for managing the manufacturing and distribution of toys, when it is heading into a season that accounts for 75 percent of its annual sales.
That became obvious on Oct. 21, when this toymaker, whose key backers are former junk bond trader Michael Milken and Oracle chief executive Larry Ellison, blamed distribution and logistics problems for missing analysts revenue estimates by $32 million in the third quarter. The revenue may be made up in the last three months of the year, but the disclosure damaged managements credibility and ended the companys 18-month run as a darling of Wall Street.
Shares fell $11.65, or 25 percent, to $24.89, when the maker of LeapPad and Leapster interactive learning games said it would earn $33.4 million, or 55 cents a share, on sales of $203.9 million in the quarter. Sales had been expected to come in at $236 million with earnings of 61 cents a share.
The real problem: LeapFrog suspended deployment of new supply-chain software—before the third quarter began.
"We started the implementation in the first half of this year but didnt complete it," says LeapFrog spokeswoman Cherie Stewart. "Were just moving into pilot right now."
LeapFrog is installing version 6.15 of logistics software from Manugistics. The automation is designed to link up and synchronize orders from retailers to the inventory the company already has on hand to fulfill orders, and to run the rest through factories in China.
Stewart says the company plans to fully implement the new supply-chain management system in the first half of 2004—when the hectic holiday shopping season is over.
In the meantime, LeapFrog is using a combination of its own existing software and some pieces of the Manugistics system. LeapFrog officials declined to comment on its internally developed system or how the eventual deployment will be an improvement.
Analysts say the companys decision to run the not-yet-ready-for-prime-time Manugistics software in unison with their customized supply-chain system made sense at midyear, even if it meant the companys ability to forecast fourth-quarter demand would be limited.
"Supply chain is a complicated thing so stalling the implementation probably isnt such a bad thing," says Chad Eschinger, an analyst at Gartner. "You dont want to be distracted and trying to implement something that can be very painful during your busiest time of the year."
But the suspension of the project produced pain anyway. Big customers, such as Wal-Mart, Target, Toys R Us and Amazon.com, like to wait until the last two weeks of the quarter to place orders. That lets them get goods they want "just in time" for the need. But LeapFrog didnt see the rush of orders coming, and was therefore unable to foresee discrepancies between demand from consumers, orders from retailers and levels of inventory.
As a result, chief executive Mike Wood told analysts on its earnings conference call that LeapFrog failed to respond adequately to orders placed during the last two weeks of the quarter. All of its toys, notably, are manufactured at eight plants in China, which puts a premium on advance planning and fast shipment.
That led investors to wonder whether management was on top of its planning for the critical holiday season in the first place—and whether LeapFrog executives understand what it takes to deal with retailers who have come to rely heavily on "just-in-time" purchasing for their stores.
"LeapFrog wasnt able to handle [the late orders] in time to book the sales for its third quarter," says Natalie Walrond, an analyst at Pacific Growth Equities in San Francisco. "Its hard to say how much of this was a software problem.