But for those who decide to play a waiting game, its not clear exactly what theyll be waiting for. Microsoft hasnt discussed what licensing terms might apply to Longhorn and Blackcomb, nor has the company made any announcement regarding what new features the operating systems will have.
Gartners Silver said he regards Longhorn as a minor upgrade from XP. Blackcomb, on the other hand, despite Microsofts lack of detail, is being called by many the next major Windows release. As eWeek has reported, Blackcomb may include a new user interface, more .Net integration and a new file system.
Though details are sketchy, these reported new features are enough to persuade IT managers such as Nelson Ramos to minimize migration to XP and hold out for following desktop operating systems, assuming, of course, that Blackcomb receives support from third-party software developers.
Ramos, vice president and CIO at Memorial Hospitals Association, in Modesto, Calif., and an eWeek Corporate Partner, has approximately 80 percent of his 900 desktops and laptops on Windows 2000. He does not see enough enhancement in XP to justify a wide-scale upgrade.
While he has tentative plans to eventually upgrade the 50 or so laptops in his organization to XP, Ramos said the strategy in place now is to skip XP entirely and wait for Longhorn when it comes to his desktops.
Longhorn, which he views as a routine system upgrade, will be the steppingstone to an eventual upgrade to Blackcomb, Ramos said.
"I see XP more as a significant advantage for the consumer because its solid and has a lot of multimedia that makes it very attractive," Ramos said. "But in a corporate environment, Im looking for reliability, networking and security, and Ive got all that built into Windows 2000."
While Silver at Gartner recommended that organizations already well along with their Windows 2000 migrations continue along that path, he warned that there are dangers in skipping XP.
Silver said Microsofts plan to drop support of Windows 2000 in the first quarter of 2004 means that enterprises that plan to skip XP and jump on Longhorn may have only a few months to test it before Windows 2000 support dries up. In fact, organizations just starting a Windows 2000 upgrade now will not finish early enough before needing to upgrade again to ensure technical support, Silver warned.
These are the concerns that plague Broudy at Mann Theatres. Theyre why he hasnt yet decided whether to upgrade broadly to XP or wait. Broudys current desktop computing environment is a mix of NT 4.0, Windows 2000 and XP. Each time a new desktop operating system has been introduced, its entered Broudys organization via new hardware purchases.
Broudy guessed that Microsofts decision to drop support of NT will eventually put tremendous pressure on him to dedicate limited time and resources to upgrading all his desktops. "I would rather not upgrade right now, but Microsoft keeps moving forward," he said. "We dont really have the resources to upgrade right now, but at the same time, we cant afford to be left behind."
A fear of falling too far behind the curve is one reason Frank Calabrese, manager of desktop strategic planning for Bose Corp., in Framingham, Mass., will eventually bring XP into his environment on newly purchased desktop machines.
Calabrese, an eWeek Corporate Partner, has 54 percent of his 2,600 users in North America on Windows 2000. The remainder are on NT 4.0 and a combination of 9x.
While Calabrese is testing XP and has plans to gradually phase in the operating system after the middle of next year, he has no plans to standardize on the new operating system. The reason: It is more expensive to upgrade to one software platform than it is to support two different versions.
"Our belief is that interim upgrades and paced, planned migrations are the way to go," Calabrese said.
"I want two operating systems to overlap at any given point because I cant land on a single product," Calabrese said. "If all I was doing was reducing support costs, Id land on one operating system. But I need to provide the right set of tools for my user environment, and two operating systems allow me to efficiently manage the cost of a migration."
Even Microsofts more deeply discounted licensing programs, such as its Enterprise Agreements and its proposed Software Assurance plan—which tend to encourage rapid operating system upgrades by users—are not enough to persuade many IT managers to jump on XP before Longhorn and Blackcomb come out.
Memorial Hospitals Ramos, for example, is wavering because signing an Enterprise Agreement with Microsoft would mean purchasing XP licenses and upgrading all his desktops.
Remaining on his Microsoft Select contract, on the other hand, would allow his organization to upgrade at its own pace, although operating system licenses would be more expensive.
"Were trying to balance the cost of supporting a user on an older operating system until the hardware is replaced vs. upgrading them and doing memory upgrades to support the software," Ramos said. "The latter seems more expensive."
Experts say that while IT managers would be wise to keep an eye on Microsofts release schedule, they should be the ones setting the pace of their upgrades.
And, although he does not recommend that organizations get too far behind, Silver said theres nothing wrong with letting older operating system versions remain in place until organizations are ready to replace them.
"Consider how aggressive you are in adopting new technology and upgrading to new applications," Silver said.
"Microsofts grand vision for everything is in Blackcomb, and thats not coming out until 2005. In the meantime, if the majority of your users dont need the newest applications, then proceed with business as usual."