Can Apple Thrive Without Steve Jobs? - Page 3

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  • Reassuring developers. For the 1997 Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, fewer than 1,800 developers showed up. This was half the attendance of years past.

Before the confab, MacWEEK reporters checked the pulse of developers, and the mood was dark.

"Apple has squandered the attention that I was willing to pay over the course of the past few years, and most especially during the past few months. Its time for me to pay attention to vial development platforms," one developer said, pointing to the Windows market.

Worse, when the NeXT squad arrived in Cupertino, they came as heroes riding in to save the day (meaning they were seen as conquerors by the existing Classic Mac and Copland teams). There was a lot of bad blood inside the software groups over who knew best for the Mac and the Mac interface.

It took Apple a good year and a half to sort out the road maps and to present a new vision for the future of the Classic Mac OS and the new Unix-based one, now called Mac OS X. The plan that Jobs presented in the spring of 1998 included a refined and workable plan to run Classic applications under OS X; Quartz, a new PDF-based graphics engine; and a laughable schedule that predicted the release of Mac OS X Version 1.0 in fall of 1999.

Jobs spent a lot of time at these conferences talking to developers in town-hall meetings. I witnessed one of these sessions, where he was very ingratiating to the audience. This personal effort helped restore the confidence of ISVs—along with increasing sales of iMacs and PowerMac hardware.

/zimages/2/28571.gifShould Microsoft take a page from Apple with the transition to Windows Vista? Click here to read more.

This transition could have gone terribly wrong. But it didnt. Apple now has a growing group of large and small developers writing for the platform, which is the largest base of Unix desktops.

For comparison with the dog days of 1997, there were some 4,200 developers from 48 countries at the 2006 WWDC in San Francisco, not counting the 1,000 Apple engineers. More than a half-million people are registered with Apples Developer Connection site, the company said, although many of them must be enthusiasts, IT managers and other fellow travelers.

  • The transition to Intel. Analysts say Apple may sell some 9 million Macs this year. And at next weeks Macworld Expo in San Francisco, we may hear how well the companys lines of Intel Macs sold in the last quarter or the year gone by. On the anecdotal front, I can attest that every time I checked out an Apple store, there seemed to be a line, and it wasnt all about iPods. Macs were heading out the doors, especially notebooks.

With this success, its hard to remember back to the 2005 developers conference when Jobs revealed Apples shift to Intel processors.

"Its good news, but one of the scariest things Apple has announced in long time," said Leonard Rosenthal, chief innovation officer at PDF tool vendor Apago, of Alpharetta, Ga., immediately after the 2005 WWDC announcement. While he said it was the "right decision," he told me that sales could take a hit. "Theres big-time uncertainty."

Notice the comments of Eric Prentice, CEO of Dr. Bott, a Wilsonville, Ore., peripheral vendor. He worried over the number of times that Jobs had reiterated a line about Apples health during the speech, as if that repetition were somehow a sign that the company really wasnt in good shape and that developers needed extra doses of assurance.

"But I have faith in Steve," Prentice said.

Again, we see the trust of the Mac community in the word of Steve Jobs. He said the transition would be good for the platform, and we buy the message.

Of course, Ive left off many other important actions that Jobs had a hand in, and some readers may consider them even more important. But Ive focused on something only Jobs seems to possess: the trust of the Mac industry.

So we return to the question: Can Apple do without Steve Jobs?

Perhaps the answer can be found in another question: Do we see the need for Jobs to spend this trust capital in the near future?

I dont see it. Is there a problem or looming transition on the order of OS X? Certainly not in the future move toward 64-bit computing. Or in content services on the consumer side.

The installed base appears content, although the summers issues with the MacBook notebook may herald a concern for the future.

Mac sales are up, and Mac customers are purchasing software and peripherals. From what I hear from developers, Mac customers still purchase more third-party products than their Windows counterparts.

To succeed, Apple must continue to execute on its plans. Thats what Jobs said in 1997. And that can be accomplished without Steve Jobs.

Please note that Im not saying Apple would be better off without Jobs. No way. Hes amazing and entertaining. I wish him only health and job security for the years ahead.

But the current FUD around his status should stop.

What do you think? Can Apple, the Mac and the iPod do without Steve Jobs? Let us know here.

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