Economists Warn: Automation Surge Could Disrupt 20% of US Jobs

Robots are no longer confined to factory floors. They are moving into warehouses, trucking routes, hotel check-in desks, and retail counters. 

According to Oxford Economics, that shift could place up to 20% of US jobs at high risk of automation over the next decade or two. The firm’s latest analysis suggests the technology required to automate many physical risks already exists and is scaling. 

While generative AI has fueled concerns about white-collar disruption, economists say the larger workforce transformation may unfold in transportation, logistics, and manufacturing.

Transportation and manufacturing show high exposure

CBS News reported that Oxford Economics evaluated more than 800 occupations and found that roughly one in five US jobs are highly vulnerable to automation over the next 20 years.

Researchers evaluated job functions and the availability of commercially viable technologies capable of performing most or all related tasks. Transportation and logistics ranked as the most exposed sector. Around 60% of jobs in that field could be automated as self-driving systems and warehouse robotics continue to scale. 

“These jobs are not evenly distributed across the economy; they are, in fact, concentrated in several sectors where they make up an extraordinarily high amount of the workforce,” Oxford highlighted in the report. 

In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Oxford Economics senior economist Nico Palesch said up to 20% of the US workforce could be highly exposed to physical robotics within the next decade or two. 

“The people losing their jobs aren’t necessarily going to get new jobs,” Palesch told Benzinga. 

Manufacturing also faces significant pressure. Benzinga noted that 51.1% of manufacturing roles are vulnerable to partial or complete automation. Accommodation and catering account for 47.2%, retail for 40.2%, wholesale for 31.0%, and extraction for 35.1%.

Productivity gains and worker impact

Economists emphasized that vulnerability doesn’t mean immediate job loss. Adoption tends to be incremental, with companies slowing hiring or shifting roles rather than eliminating entire departments at once. 

“That being said, just because there is the potential for automation doesn’t mean these jobs are all going to be automated this year, next year, or even within five years. Progress is incremental and ongoing,” Palesch told CBS News. 

Palesch also told Benzinga that displacement could be particularly difficult for some workers, especially older workers with specialized skills. 

“A 50-year-old truck driver whose livelihood is eliminated by autonomous vehicle software is unlikely to find equally skilled, equally paid work elsewhere,” Palesch stated.

“For them, unemployment will be quite a bit higher, probably for many, many years, potentially for the rest of their lives,” he added.

Read why Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman believes white-collar tasks could be automated within 12 to 18 months.