Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI Deal Is ‘On Ice.’ So Why Are They Investing $30B?

Wait, so Nvidia and OpenAI just had the “largest computing project in history”… and now it’s on hold? Or is it being rolled into a new deal? And Nvidia’s also investing $30 billion? Make it make sense.

Last September 2025, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stood alongside Sam Altman and called their $100 billion partnership “the largest computing project in history”—at least 10 gigawatts of AI computing power (roughly 10 nuclear power plants’ worth). Nvidia’s stock jumped 4%. OpenAI said they’d close the deal within weeks.

Fast forward to today, and that deal is “on ice.” Negotiations stalled and never got past the early stages. And Jensen has been privately telling people it was never legally binding anyway.

Here’s what reportedly went wrong: Jensen has concerns about OpenAI’s “lack of discipline” and the competition eating their lunch. The numbers back him up:

• ChatGPT’s web traffic share dropped from 86.7% to 64.5% in just 12 months (that’s a 22-point nosedive)
• Anthropic now owns 40% of the enterprise market while OpenAI sits at 27%
• Google Gemini is at 21% and climbing
• OpenAI is burning $14 billion a year on $20B in revenue

Oh, and OpenAI is building its own chips to cut costs and reduce dependence on… you guessed it, Nvidia.

But here’s where it gets confusing

The same week we learned the original deal stalled, reports emerged that Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI’s current funding round.

And the plot thickens when Jensen went on live TV to dispute the WSJ report, calling claims of a rift “complete nonsense” and saying Nvidia will make “probably the largest investment we’ve ever made” in OpenAI. He added, “I really love working with Sam.”

So what’s actually happening? A few possibilities:

Possibility 1: The original $100 billion deal is still on the table, but was always contingent on OpenAI building and deploying more data centers first. That means it was really more like a $10 billion deal until proven otherwise — making this $30 billion investment a triple-down bet.

Possibility 2: The original non-binding agreement is being replaced by this new $30B equity deal as part of the broader funding round.

Why they can’t pull out: As one analyst pointed out — the cat’s already out of the bag. Of course, they’re going through with some investment. Pulling out now would topple the entire AI infrastructure complex. A $50-100 billion check is just 1-2% of Nvidia’s market cap. The alternative? A 20% drawdown that wipes out $1 trillion in valuation.

We’ll know more once the funding round closes, but for now, we’re getting rumor mill whiplash.

• Amazon: $10-50 billion (wants expanded cloud deals in return)
• Microsoft: Under $10 billion (already deep in the relationship)
• SoftBank: Another $30 billion (after dropping $41B in December)
• Total round: $100 billion, valuing OpenAI at $830 billion

Let that sink in. Eight hundred thirty billion dollars. For a company losing $14 billion annually while its market share crumbles.

This is peak Silicon Valley circularity — the companies investing billions are literally the same ones selling OpenAI the servers, cloud services, and chips it needs to operate. It’s like your landlord investing in your business, which exists only to pay rent.

Why this matters

OpenAI’s valuation went from $100 billion (2024) to $300 billion (March 2025) to potentially $830B (now), all while bleeding market share and cash. They’re planning an IPO for late 2026, racing to beat Anthropic to public markets.

The AI arms race isn’t a two-horse race anymore. And even the smartest money in Silicon Valley isn’t sure OpenAI can maintain its lead. But apparently, when you’re this deep in the hole, the only way out is through… with everyone else’s money.

Editor’s note: This content originally ran in the newsletter of our sister publication, The Neuron. To read more from The Neuron, sign up for its newsletter here.