The AMOLED market is not collapsing in 2026, but it is getting pulled in two different directions. The latest forecast points to a flat overall OLED market following 3% growth in 2025, with smartphone OLED panel shipments expected to decline even as monitors, laptops, and tablets continue to expand
Smartphones still account for the biggest share of OLED panel demand, so a 3% drop there carries more weight than the headline number suggests. The market may look steady on paper, but the center of gravity is shifting.
Smartphones are weakening while IT OLED keeps growing
Counterpoint Research says smartphone OLED panel shipments are projected to fall 3% in 2026 after global OLED panel shipments rose 3% in 2025. At the same time, OLED monitor shipments are expected to rise by 45%, laptop panels by 33%, and tablet panels by 13%. That leaves the broader market roughly flat rather than down outright.
The immediate pressure point is cost. Counterpoint tied its revised outlook to higher memory prices, which are hitting smartphones harder than other OLED categories. DigiTimes also reported in late March that the smartphone panel market had yet to see its usual post-Lunar New Year replenishment cycle, with rising upstream costs and softer end demand weighing on conditions.
That matters because smartphone OLED remains the volume engine of the category. Growth in IT displays is real, but it is still coming from smaller bases. A strong year for OLED monitors and laptops can cushion the overall market, yet it does not fully change the fact that the largest segment is under pressure.
What the flat 2026 forecast actually tells us
TrendForce’s quarterly AMOLED tracker treats TVs, monitors, notebook PCs, and smartphones as separate segments, reflecting how the industry itself treats these markets. In other words, growth in one bucket does not automatically erase stress in another.
That shift is already visible in the kinds of devices expected to keep driving OLED adoption. Apple’s current roadmap points to greater attention to OLED MacBook hardware later this year, while Samsung’s latest flagship push shows how premium smartphones continue to lean on display differentiation. Those moves support OLED demand, but they do not alter the near-term slowdown in overall smartphone panel shipments.
Another sign of pricing pressure is already in view: DigiTimes reports that AMOLED panel prices are expected to drop by more than 20% in the second half of 2026.
That could help spark more mid-range adoption later, but for now, it points to a market that is working through weaker demand and tighter economics, not one riding smooth momentum into the year.
Also read: Apple Breaks Touchscreen Taboo on MacBook Pro.