Elon Musk says SpaceX’s AI business could generate more revenue than all of the company’s other businesses combined as soon as September 2026, overtaking a mix that includes Starlink and space operations. Speaking during an Aug. 11 companywide meeting, Musk said AI revenue would “significantly exceed” the rest of SpaceX’s revenue in the fourth quarter, Business Insider reported.
The forecast goes beyond simply overtaking Starlink: SpaceX’s AI segment would need to surpass its connectivity and space businesses combined. Such a shift would recast a company built around rockets and satellite internet as one increasingly driven by AI software and computing infrastructure.
SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, including $2.56 billion from AI, $4.29 billion from connectivity and $962 million from space operations. AI therefore trailed the other two segments combined by about $2.7 billion in Q2.
SpaceX AI revenue is closing the gap
AI revenue more than tripled from the first quarter, when SpaceX reported $818 million from the segment. SpaceX defines AI broadly, covering AI applications and compute infrastructure rather than only cloud services.
The company does not disclose monthly segment revenue, so its public results cannot yet confirm Musk’s September prediction. The Aug. 11 companywide meeting provides his latest timetable for when he expects AI to become SpaceX’s largest revenue source.
Third-party compute contracts are already contributing to that growth. Anthropic agreed in May to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 after reduced fees during the initial capacity ramp. Either party can terminate the agreements on 90 days’ notice after the first three months.
SpaceX also added Reflection AI as a compute customer in June, expanding the customer base for infrastructure originally built around its own AI operations.
Cloud contracts fuel SpaceX’s AI push
Google signed a separate cloud-services agreement with SpaceX in June. The agreement calls for $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs plus CPUs, memory and related components. Capacity is ramping through September at a reduced fee.
SpaceX is spending heavily to support that expansion. About $15.8 billion of its $18.4 billion in Q2 capital expenditures went to AI, according to an analysis of its quarterly results, while the segment remained unprofitable.
More capacity is planned. SpaceX is reportedly developing another large AI data center in Texas, while separate discussions about supplying AI data-center capacity to the Pentagon point to potential demand beyond commercial AI developers.
Whether AI can surpass Starlink and SpaceX’s other businesses as early as Musk predicts remains unproven. If it does, SpaceX’s biggest business would no longer be satellite connectivity or space operations but AI — a major shift in where the company is investing capital and competing for customers.
Read more: SpaceX’s infrastructure expansion is developing alongside its model business, with the company also working with Cursor on jointly developed AI models as it pushes beyond selling compute capacity alone.