SpaceX’s long-awaited public-market moment may become less of a launch than a stress test.
The company is reportedly preparing to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker “SPCX” after pricing shares at $135, a deal that could raise more than $75 billion and value SpaceX at nearly $1.8 trillion, according to reports cited in the draft. If confirmed, it would rank among the largest IPOs ever and instantly place Elon Musk’s space company alongside the world’s most valuable tech giants.
Demand for the offering has been intense. Bloomberg, cited by AFP, reported that the IPO was more than four times oversubscribed, with retail investors allocated around 20% of the shares.
Analysts say early trading could be volatile as the market decides whether the valuation holds under real demand.
Musk’s expanding empire and AI ambitions
The IPO places even more attention on the sprawling business empire tied to Elon Musk, which now spans rockets, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence. SpaceX has expanded beyond its core launch business into Starlink and has absorbed Musk’s AI startup xAI, which is tied to his broader push into generative AI competition.
The company itself has floated ambitious projections, including a theoretical $28.5 trillion market opportunity spanning space infrastructure, AI systems, and orbital computing, according to Reuters.
Despite its scale, SpaceX is not profitable. The company reported $18.7 billion in revenue last year but posted a net loss of about $4.9 billion, largely due to heavy investment in AI infrastructure.
Some analysts are skeptical that the valuation is grounded in fundamentals. “Investors will spend years debating whether the IPO price was too high or too low. I expect a lot of volatility in the next few months,” investor Mike Alves of VIDA Vision Fund warned, according to Reuters.
Others remain optimistic about Musk’s track record. Joel Shulman, CEO of ERShares, said, “We have to go back 100 years to get comparable entrepreneurs. He's a visionary unlike others, and he executes extremely well.”
Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Investments added, “This is not a name you're buying based on fundamentals. For me, the analogy is Amazon. This was a company that changed the way we live,” Reuters reported.
The IPO is expected to create thousands of new millionaires among current and former employees, with some early insiders becoming billionaires overnight.
Control, politics, and controversy
Despite going public, Musk will retain overwhelming influence over the company through special voting structures that give him roughly 85% control, according to filings cited by the BBC.
Critics argue this raises governance risks, while supporters say it preserves visionary leadership. “There is no-one who can run this company other than Elon, frankly. We want Elon to have that kind of control,” said SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell in comments to CNBC cited by the BBC.
The scale of Musk’s potential wealth has also drawn political criticism. Nabil Ahmed of Oxfam America said: “A trillion dollars in the hands of one man is incompatible not only with an affordable economy, but also with a healthy democracy,” AFP reported.
Market watchers say the debut will serve as a test not only for SpaceX but for the wider wave of AI-linked mega-IPOs expected in the coming years, including companies like OpenAI and Anthropic.
As trading begins, investors will be watching closely to see whether enthusiasm for Musk’s vision can survive the reality of public markets or whether SpaceX becomes the most expensive question Wall Street has ever asked.
Also read: For a deeper look at how SpaceX fits into Elon Musk’s broader strategy spanning AI, electric vehicles, brain-computer interfaces, and social media, read our breakdown of the interconnected ecosystem linking xAI, Tesla, Neuralink, X, and SpaceX.