Study Warns AI May Wipe Out 3M Low-Skilled UK Jobs by 2035

Trades, machine operations, and administrative roles are all under threat from AI in the UK.

A major new report warns that as many as three million low-skilled jobs could disappear in the UK by 2035 due to accelerating advances in automation and AI. The analysis — published by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) — suggests that the most vulnerable roles are history, as employers increasingly turn to digital tools and automated systems to manage core operations.

The findings add fresh urgency to long-running debates about the future of work, productivity, and inequality in an AI-driven economy. The researchers argue the UK is entering a period of profound labour market restructuring that will not be felt evenly across sectors or skill levels.

Jobs at risk

NFER’s modelling suggests that lower-skilled roles — especially those requiring repetitive tasks or predictable workflows — are the most likely to be replaced by machines or AI systems. This includes many positions central to manufacturing, logistics, basic office administration, and some routine trades.

These projections stand in contrast to recent claims that AI poses the greatest threat to highly skilled, white-collar professions. While some economists have argued that software engineering, management consultancy, and other professional roles may be more exposed to generative AI, NFER’s forward-looking analysis indicates a different path: those sectors may actually expand in the near term as AI increases workloads and heightens demand for specialist oversight.

The report forecasts overall UK job growth of 2.3 million roles by 2035, but warns that these gains will be concentrated in higher-skilled professions — leaving displaced low-skilled workers with limited pathways back into stable employment.

Conflicting evidence

The new findings arrive amid ongoing disagreement among researchers about AI’s true impact on the workforce. A King’s College analysis published in October found that higher-paying firms saw job losses of about 9.4% between 2021 and 2025 — much of it after the release of ChatGPT in late 2022 — suggesting professional roles may be more vulnerable than expected.

Government assessments have also highlighted exposure among occupations such as management consultancy, psychology, and legal services. By contrast, physical jobs requiring dexterity, situational awareness or on-site problem-solving — such as sports players, roofers, and bricklayers — remain comparatively insulated from near-term automation.

Recent corporate announcements reflect this uncertainty. Clifford Chance revealed last week that it would cut around 10% of its business services staff in London, partly citing the influence of AI. At PwC, the firm’s global leader reversed earlier plans to hire 100,000 people between 2021 and 2026, saying “the world is different” and AI had fundamentally changed recruitment expectations.

Economic context

Jude Hillary, one of the report’s authors, emphasised that the public narrative around sweeping AI-induced job losses may be outpacing economic reality. He argued that sluggish economic growth, rising employer costs — including national insurance increases — and risk-averse hiring practices may be playing a larger role in recent staff cuts than automation itself.

“There’s this general uncertainty about where things are going, how long it takes to improve. There’s lots of talk about AI and automation without any real substance about it. Lots of employers are worried about it,” Hillary said. “And probably what’s happening is a lot of employers are just sitting tight, I would say.”

His view suggests that many companies may be attributing workforce reductions to AI because it fits prevailing narratives, even when technological adoption remains limited or uneven.

Long-term implications

Hillary stressed that the UK faces a deeply uneven transition as AI transforms work. While demand for professional and associate professional roles is likely to increase — particularly in fields that require judgment, oversight, or collaboration with AI systems — the demand for entry-level and lower-skilled jobs is expected to shrink dramatically.

This poses major socioeconomic challenges. Workers who lose low-skilled roles typically face steep barriers to retraining and gaining qualifications needed for emerging occupations. Without significant government intervention or employer investment in upskilling, the report warns that many may be permanently pushed out of the labour market.

“The additional jobs that we’re getting in the labour market tend to be professional and associate professionals … Displaced workers, the one to three million that we talk about in our report, face significant barriers to get back into the labour market,” Hillary said.

A workforce at a crossroads

The report underscores a critical inflection point for the UK: while AI promises efficiency and new economic opportunities, it also risks deepening inequality if swathes of low-skilled workers are left behind. Policymakers now face urgent questions about how to support reskilling, how to distribute the gains of automation, and how to manage a transition that could reshape the country’s labour landscape over the next decade.

The picture remains unsettled — but the implications are becoming clear. Without proactive planning, the UK could see major technological progress accompanied by widespread displacement and widening social divides.