The New World Order of AI: JPMorgan Warns of a Geopolitical Power Shift

A new report from one of the world’s leading financial institutions warns that the global AI race is reshaping power itself, determining which nations lead, how they compete, and even how they wage war.

JPMorgan Chase’s latest analysis warns that AI is on track to transform global alliances, rewrite defense strategies, and redraw the lines of where economic power lies. The institution’s report argues that control over AI infrastructure, data, energy, and hardware is becoming as critical as control over territory once was.

China and the US: Leading on divergent paths

While both the US and China dominate the global AI field, they are taking “divergent paths,” the report states.

Washington is leaning heavily on its private sector for innovation, infrastructure development, and integration into defense. The scale of investment is significant; AI-related stocks in the US have been responsible for nearly all of the country’s earnings growth (80%) and capital spending growth (90%) since November 2022.

However, the US government’s role is evolving, moving from being a mere regulator to becoming a stakeholder. This shift has led to uncommon developments, such as the Trump administration taking a stake in Intel or allowing Nvidia to sell some chips in China in exchange for a portion of sales.

In contrast, Beijing is pursuing a state-led strategy of self-reliance, heavily investing to secure its position as a technological leader. This assertive push involves exporting lower-cost, open-source AI solutions, creating a key geopolitical choice for other countries on which model to adopt.

This tension is playing out in heightened trade disputes, including a recent escalation where China threatened to limit global access to rare earths — minerals vital for semiconductor production — and the US responded with threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and harsher export controls.

The new global players and chokepoints

The report identifies seven strategic “axes” that are motivating governments and businesses to reposition themselves. Beyond the US-China rivalry, other nations and regions are aggressively staking their claim:

• The Middle East: Thanks to vast oil and gas wealth, the region’s sovereign wealth funds are now leveraging their energy surpluses to become major investors in global AI infrastructure and research, effectively transforming the Middle East into a key tech player.
• Europe’s push for autonomy: The European Union is striving for “tech sovereignty,” aiming to reduce its reliance on foreign technology from both the US and China. This drive is rooted in a desire to protect data privacy and enhance cybersecurity, forcing firms to navigate an increasingly fragmented global AI ecosystem.

The bank warns that the ability to scale AI is now defined by “new chokepoints”: energy and hardware. Those with advanced infrastructure, stable electricity capacity, and access to semiconductors and critical minerals will lead the way, while others risk being left behind.

AI transforms war and work

The analysis also highlights two areas where AI’s influence will be particularly disruptive: defense and labor.

Militarily, AI is rapidly becoming the “operating system of modern military power.” The report notes that those militaries that can integrate AI the fastest will hold “decisive battlefield advantages.” From AI-assisted targeting to the deployment of swarming drones, the technology is transforming the cost and speed of conflict, presenting a challenge for defense industries that rely on older, slower production models.

On the domestic front, the rise of widespread automation threatens to displace jobs, which the report says is “fueling populist sentiments and calls for protectionist policies.” Governments must now grapple with balancing rapid technological advancement against the need to secure social stability and employment.

As the report puts it, nations that “most effectively harness AI’s transformative potential while safeguarding against its risks will enjoy decisive economic, political, and security advantages in the decades ahead.”

Check out how Nvidia’s CEO says AI demand is surging — a striking confirmation that control over computing power has become a key battlefield in the global race.