Gartner Predicts: Return to Distributed Systems

By Stan Gibson  |  Posted 2002-10-08 Print this article Print

Bandwidth that's becoming more affordable than computing will spur a return to distributed systems, including grid computing, over the next several years, said Gartner analyst Carl Claunch.

ORLANDO, Fla.—Bandwidth thats becoming more affordable than computing will spur a return to distributed systems, including grid computing, over the next several years, said Gartner Inc. analyst Carl Claunch at Gartners annual Symposium/ITxpo here in his session titled "Gartner Predicts: The Future of IT." Grid-based computing, in which a number of distributed systems are linked together to cooperate on computing tasks, will gain ground gradually, following in the wake of a trend to re-distribute processing generally, following the current trend to consolidate servers and data centers to reap economies. "The pendulum will swing back to distributed computing by 2004," said Claunch. Claunchs presentation included a top 10 list of trends. Among them is the advent of what he called "Interprise systems" that will be built to connect multiple companies that partner together. The benefit will be reducing inventories and waste in business-to-business transactions, he said.
Claunch said that IT will continue to deliver productivity gains at many companies, but these advances will result in layoffs, even at successful companies, as workers are no longer needed. "Companies will no longer expand IT systems just because its possible to." By 2010, companies that have moved much of their operations to the Internet will have 30 percent fewer workers than other companies, he predicted.
Also disappearing from the scene will be a number of vendors. "At least one major player in each major market will go away by 2004," he said. Only in 2008 will we start to see a return to innovation, startups and venture capital funding. One thing that wont change will be Moores law, which will continue in force through the end of the decade. That law will result in far more powerful PCs than at present, with four to eight 40GHz CPUs per system and 1.5 terabytes of disk storage, he said. Claunch also predicted that by 2007, banks will become primary providers of so-called "presence" services like Microsoft Corp.s Passport identity service. More Gartner Symposium/ITxpo Coverage:
  • Gartner: Some Silver Linings in IT Clouds
  • Gartner Upbeat on IT Spending (Baseline)
  • Cisco Boss Flexes Market Muscle (Baseline)
    Stan Gibson is Executive Editor of eWEEK. In addition to taking part in Ziff Davis eSeminars and taking charge of special editorial projects, his columns and editorials appear regularly in both the print and online editions of eWEEK. He is chairman of eWEEK's Editorial Board, which received the 1999 Jesse H. Neal Award of the American Business Press. In ten years at eWEEK, Gibson has served eWEEK (formerly PC Week) as Executive Editor/eBiz Strategies, Deputy News Editor, Networking Editor, Assignment Editor and Department Editor. His Webcast program, 'Take Down,' appeared on He has appeared on many radio and television programs including TechTV, CNBC, PBS, WBZ-Boston, WEVD New York and New England Cable News. Gibson has appeared as keynoter at many conferences, including CAMP Expo, Society for Information Management, and the Technology Managers Forum. A 19-year veteran covering information technology, he was previously News Editor at Communications Week and was Software Editor and Systems Editor at Computerworld.

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