said he anticipates budget growth of 4 percent for 2009, but he expects that
actual spending growth will be 7 percent due to the economic rebound he expects
in the second half of the year. "2009 will start lousy and get better," he
points out that although 2007 was a year of strong IT spending, it was not,
strictly speaking, a boom year. "Growth was 7 percent. That's about the same as
2006. It was not 10 percent to 12 percent growth as it was in the late
the upturn that may be coming next year could kick off a period of strong IT
spending that could last for years, if an economic model developed by Forrester
to Bartels, since the dawn of the computer age 60 years ago, IT spending has
gone through alternating eight-year periods of high investment, during which IT
spending has grown twice as fast as the economy, and eight-year periods of
restraint, during which IT has grown only at the rate of the economy.
2008 concludes a period of restraint that began in 2001 with the collapse of the
dot-com bubble, we're due for an eight-year rebound period, the model predicts.
around 2009 to 2010, we could see a boom like the ERP boom," Bartels said.
Although he is unclear as to the specific technology that will drive increased
spending, Bartels suggested that the trend to server virtualization and cloud
computing could free up IT dollars that could be invested in new IT initiatives,
whether new applications based on service-oriented architecture, widespread use
of embedded computing technologies or ballooning storage needs.
IDC's Minton disagreed with Forrester's eight-year
don't agree that IT spending will go back to the boom spending we saw in the
past ... but the cycle of valleys and peaks will probably continue," Minton said.
"Once we get out of the economic downturn in the second half of next year and in
2010, there will be growth of five to six percent. That's really the long-term