SAS Helps Predict March Madness

By Dennis Callaghan  |  Posted 2004-03-22

Not even high-powered statistical analysis software could get inside the minds of the NCAA tournament selection committee this year.

The NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament Dance Card application was developed using a computational procedure in Base SAS called Probit. The computational formula, which takes into account past tourney selections, computes scores for the top teams in the country. But it cant account for the human factor, such as a bias on the committee against particular schools or a team not getting in because too many teams from its conference already made it.

This year, the Dance Card picked 31 of 34 at-large bids correctly. At 91.2 percent accuracy, it fell short of its six-year average of 94 percent.

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