The iPads Sales Will Preclude It From Happening

If we consider the iPad 2’s sales figures, it’s hard to see how any device can ever be called an iPad Killer. After all, Apple is selling millions of tablets every quarter, while the company’s competitors try to muster that much in a year. Sure, a device could come along and cut into iPad sales, but does anyone really expect any current or future competing tablet model to topple the iPad 2 from the top spot?

Just for fun, let’s assume that a tablet comes along and really hurts iPad sales. Given where the product’s sales figures are now, who can really believe that any device will cut the iPad out of the market altogether? The iPad is simply too popular and too profitable for Apple to cut and run.

It’s an odd thing that people believe only one tablet will be able to thrive in the tablet space. Sure, the iPad 2 is the only device right now that is having much success, but as the market for tablets grows, there’s no reason to suggest that other devices won’t have some major sales growth. Whether it’s the PC or smartphone businesses, multiple devices can be successful. The tablet space isn’t any different.

Unfortunately, stakeholders have been coming along suggesting that the only way to be a success in the tablet space is to “kill” the iPad. That’s simply not true. Right now, a host of companies are vying for the second-place position in the tablet market. Whenever a company hits that position, they will likely be selling millions of tablets—at a profit, mind you—worldwide. Sure, it might not match the iPad 2’s sales, but who cares? Success in the tablet space has nothing to do with Apple’s tablet.

Looking back at the tablet market, several tablets that were supposed to be “iPad Killers” have been vanquished. The Motorola Xoom, which launched earlier this year, was supposed to take down the iPad with Android 3.0 “Honeycomb” and its 10.1-inch display, but it never happened. The HP TouchPad with its 9.7-inch screen and webOS integration was believed to be the next big thing in the tablet space. Now, that device has been discontinued. In the tablet market, it appears being called an “iPad killer” is really nothing less than a death sentence.

Much has been made about the Kindle Fire’s $199 price tag. Folks around the globe say that at that price, it has the ability to kill off Apple’s iPad 2, which starts at $499. But even Amazon doesn’t believe that, and has distanced its device from iPad comparisons. Like it or not, pricing doesn’t matter nearly as much as some think. After all, if it did, the Barnes & Noble Nook Color and the Vizio tablet would be “killing” Apple’s iPad 2 right now.

The tablet market started in earnest last year when Apple launched its first iPad. And yet, not even two years later, folks are already wondering which devices will die at the hands of others. The tablet market is just getting started, and several prominent companies, including Microsoft, have yet to even make a splash in the space. The tablet market is far too young for any device—iPad or not—to be “killed.”

All this talk of iPad killers seems to forget about one key factor: Apple’s cash. As of this writing, Apple has about $28 billion in cash and short-term investments on-hand. One can bet, given the importance of the iPad to its bottom line, that Apple would spend as much as it had to in order to ensure its tablet doesn’t die. That could mean acquiring an upstart that’s performing well in the tablet space or investing an inordinate amount of cash on research. In either case, Apple’s cash is perhaps the best reason there is no such thing as a true iPad killer.

Apple’s business relies heavily upon the Halo Effect, the idea that people buy one of its devices and are then more likely to buy other products from the firm because they liked the first one. With that in mind, the more iPhones and Macs Apple sells, the greater the chances that its iPad will continue to sell well. As nice as some other tablets might be, they don’t have the iPhone to help improve their sales.

The idea of a single device staying a leader and all the others trailing indefinitely is a bit odd in the first place. The tablet space, like so many others, is fluid. Although one device might be leading the way today, another will take its place tomorrow. That’s not a bad thing. Regardless of which tablet is in the lead, consumers benefit from choices. It’s important to not lose sight of that.