Verizon iPhone Threatens to Disrupt Android, Windows Phone 7, Motorola, HTC Sales

by Clint Boulton

RIM will be the most devastated by the iPhone on Verizon. The company has slowly bled market share. Verizon is the top Blackberry carrier in the U.S., so the appearance of the iPhone on that network will further marginalize the Blackberry. Time to start putting more wood behind the Playbook.

Verizon is the chief reason Android market share has soared in 2010. In November 2009, Verizon launched the first Motorola Droid, and quickly sold more than 1 million units for the holiday season backed by an anything but robotic marketing campaign on TV and on billboards in New York City. Verizon would go on to launch several more Droids.

Motorola has staked its future on Android. The company’s handset sales had been floundering for years in the wake of missed opportunities and poor device design. That changed when the company embraced Android. In its most recent quarter, Motorola posted a $109 million profit and said it shipped 3.8 million smartphones, with consumers choosing among 22 devices for 2010. Most of those shipped were some sort of Droid device, the Droid, Droid 2 or Droid X. When the iPhone comes to Verizon it will surely put a crimp on Motorola’s handset sales.

A long-time Windows phone maker HTC came on strong with Android in 2010, offering the super popular HTC Droid Incredible on Verizon and the HTC Evo 4G on Sprint. The iPhone 4 provides a compelling alternative to either device on Verizon.

With Android, Samsung started slow but came on strong, launching 5 Samsung Galaxy S Android handsets that sold more than 5 million units over the summer. Those devices may have gleaned the success they were meant to have, but Samsung has future Android handsets in the works, including the rumored Nexus Two. Will that device have a chance versus the iPhone on Verizon? Samsung is also building Windows Phone 7 devices, which leads to the next dilemma.

Microsoft has bet its mobile future on its Windows Phone 7 platform after Windows Mobile sustained serious market share losses to iPhone and Android in recent years. Windows Phone 7 smartphones are launching on AT&T and T-Mobile in the next two weeks. Will Microsoft build enough momentum to matter before the Verizon iPhone appears?

Remember Palm, the Treo maker? Lots of people bought Treos. Few purchased the first Palm Pre on Sprint or Verizon. Now the Pre 2 is here with marked improvements. Has the sun set on Palm and its Pre devices despite the support of HP?

No. 3 carrier Sprint will have a time gaining more traction with Android and Blackberry devices next year against the Verizon iPhone.

The situation is even worse for No. 4 carrier T-Mobile, which hopes to sell as many G2 and myTouch 4G handsets as it can for this holiday season. T-Mobile of course also carries Blackberry devices and has Windows Phone 7 penciled in for mid-November.

What effect will the Verizon iPhone have on AT&T? This is the most interesting story. Verizon is the No. 1 network, with 93 million customers. AT&T, to this point the exclusive iPhone carrier, is No. 2 with 92.8 million subscribers. Verizon could be getting the iPhone just in time to retain its No. 1 crown.