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In a July 27 report, Jon Peddie Research predicts that, after a slow first half of the year, the graphics market is gearing up for a more robust second half.
Noting that graphics chips are the leading indicators of the PC market, the research firm states that 2009 has shown the best second quarter, quarter-to-quarter change in nine years.
From 2003 through 2009, the average change from the first quarter to the second was 0.83 percent. In 2006, for example, growth fell by 4.22 percent; in 2007, it grew 3.13 percent, and in 2008 it fell 0.49 percent. In 2009, however, the growth between quarters was 31.29 percent.
From the first quarter of 2009 to the second quarter, according to JPR, Intel shipments grew from 37.20 million units to 50.30 million units, a growth of 35.2 percent; Nvidia shipments grew from 23.26 million units to 28.74 million units, representing 23.6 percent growth; and Advanced Micro Devices shipments increased from 12.81 million units to 18.13 million units, or by 41.5 percent.
“Things probably aren’t going to get back to the normal seasonality till [the third or fourth quarter of 2009], and we won’t hit the levels of 2008 until 2010,” states JPR in a statement on the report. “However, people still need to buy things. Old computers will fail, new employees will be hired and need machines and of course software upgrades like Windows 7 will be coming along.”
JPR predicts an upturn in the PC market, and particularly the graphics market, which in addition to PCs serves several vertical industries, including aerospace, automotive and medical systems. The reason for its optimism is several-fold, and includes the fourth-quarter introduction of Apple’s Snow Leopard operating system and Microsoft’s Windows 7.
Additionally, JPR states, ATI and Nvidia will be introducing new 40-nanometer designs with high performance and aggressive price points; the channel is restocking for back-to-school and the holidays; and there is expected to be an impact from worldwide stimulus plans.
“And yes,” JPR adds to the list, “there is pent-up demand.”
AMD, which according to JPR increased its market share from 17.1 percent in the last quarter to 18.4 percent this quarter, nonetheless posted disappointing earnings on July 21.
Intel, whose market share rose from 49.7 percent last quarter to 51.2 percent this quarter, posted strong earnings on July 14, not including the European Commission’s hefty fine against the chip maker for antitrust violations.
Nvidia, however, saw its market share fall from 31.1 percent last quarter to 29.2 percent presently.