Page 2

By Guy Kewney  |  Posted 2004-12-27 Print this article Print

: Preparing for takeoff"> Well, it turns out that the use of wideband CDMA for data is popular with big spenders. And indeed, personally, I wouldnt be without my Vodafone 3G data card. For someone like myself who absolutely has to have Internet access on a daily basis or go out of business, the price is not the critical factor. At least, not until theres a choice. The trouble is, the plan was for the 3G network operators to have had four years of revenue at this level before the Flash-OFDM (orthogonal frequency division multiplexing) and TD-CDMA (Time Division-CDMA) packet-switching networks were needed to cope with the overspill. The plan was for the big spenders to have funded the rollout of the network, which would then carry voice to the millions of people who were happy with a 15K bps codec to turn voice into data and back again, but who wanted to send the occasional frame of video. And of course, the latency is the killer. Both satellite and 3G were conceived by people whose minds thought of "broadcast": A big antenna owner sending out precious content to an eager audience. If it started a second or so after real time, who could tell?
But data users are running software that was developed for use on local Ethernet systems. They expect communications protocols to run at the very least at around 10M bps with a latency of around 5 milliseconds. Their software times out waiting for satellite or GPRS responses for FTP or HTTP interchanges, and needs rewriting. And instead of being passive recipients of data, they generate it.
So 2004 was the preview for packet-switched mobile data. And 2005 will turn out to be show time. And on this occasion, it may well be that America wont have to regard itself as being a laggard. Click here for Jason Brooks analysis of 3G. In another twelve months, when were preparing our "What happened last year?" summaries, we may well find that commercial deployment of TD-CDMA and Flash-OFDM in North America will have heavily outstripped Europe and even Asian deployments. Why? Well, the obvious problem with the European and Asian countryside is that its all too easy to dream about do-it-yourself solutions. China is seriously considering rolling out a Wi-Fi franchise system so that users can roam from the nascent mobile phone network onto the Internet, seamlessly switching from one to the other. Britain is planning a network of telematics nodes along all major highways (so are several other European countries) that could provide very high-speed Internet access. In the wide open spaces of North America, however, the idea of providing a mast every 100 yards along all major highways looks very much less like a commercial proposition. Something with longer reach is essential. And it will have to be a genuine broadband solution, not a slapdash offering that is basically ATM (asynchronous transfer mode) circuit-switched technology. This time next year, I think the politics of 3G will be in turmoil as the operators try to bargain for better deals, but I think the rollout of widespread high-speed wireless data will be well under way, and reaching close to 1 percent of the data user population. Read Guy Kewneys other recent columns about trends in mobile and wireless technology. Check out eWEEK.coms for the latest news, reviews and analysis on mobile and wireless computing.


Submit a Comment

Loading Comments...
Manage your Newsletters: Login   Register My Newsletters

Rocket Fuel