Cisco Explains How Global Network Traffic Will Reach 2ZB Milestone

by Jeffrey Burt

Between 2014 and 2019, the amount of traffic running annually on networks worldwide will triple, to 2 zettabytes. (Two zettabytes is 12 times more than all the Internet traffic generated in 2009, and equal to 30 hours of ultra-HD video per person in the world.)

More people are getting access to networks and the Internet. In 2014, there were 2.8 billion Internet users, about 39 percent of the world’s population. By 2019, there will be about 3.9 billion, or 51 percent of the population.

There will be 24 billion networked devices and connections online by 2019, about 10 billion more than last year. The devices range from smartphones and tablets, to ultra-HD TVs, to wearable technology and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections.

Last year, each person on average had two networked devices or connections. By 2019, that average will jump to 3.2 per capita. Carriers will need a strong IPv6 strategy to handle the volume and complexity that comes with all these devices, Cisco researchers say.

The average speed of fixed broadband connections will more than double between 2014 and 2019, growing from 20.3M bps to 42.5M bps. By that year, 33 percent of all global fixed broadband connections will be faster than 25M bps.

Last year, video accounted for 67 percent of all IP traffic. That will jump to 80 percent. That’s no surprise, given that Netflix streaming videos at times can account for about a third of all Internet traffic.

It’s not only the amount of video that is impacting network traffic, but also the quality, from standard video to HD video to ultra-HD video, and the higher the quality, the more bandwidth will be needed. In 2014, ultra-HD video accounted for 0.6 percent of video traffic. That will jump to 13.9 percent in 2019.

By 2019, smartphones will account for more than 40 percent of the world’s video-capable devices.

On the business side of things, desktop and personal video conferencing will be the fastest-growing Internet service, increasing 23.5 percent annually between 2014 and 2019. The number of users will jump from 76 million last year to 220 million by 2019.

Last year, 54 percent of IP traffic came from fixed connections. By 2019, WiFi and mobile-connected devices will generate 67 percent of the traffic, with WiFi—at 53 percent—owning the lion’s share.

The Internet of everything (IoE)—which Cisco officials say includes the Internet of things—is growing, which means M2M connections are growing worldwide. Such connections will triple between 2014 and 2019—to 10.5 billion in 2019.

A broad range of business verticals—such as agriculture, health care, retail and transportation—and homes (through video security, smart meters and lighting controls) are adopting IoE, and annual M2M traffic across the globe will jump 15-fold through 2019, hitting 4.6 exabytes, or 2.7 percent of all IP traffic.

Cisco researchers are predicting that traffic related to downloads of games will jump, due in large part to the increased storage capacity of newer gaming consoles, growth in upstream cloud traffic and more fiber connections.

By 2019, the Asia-Pacific region will generate 54.4 exabytes of traffic a month (a 2.6-fold increase over 2014), while North America will generate 49.7 exabytes (a 2.5-fold increase). The Middle East and Africa will be the smallest in terms of exabytes generated each month—9.4—but will also be the fastest growing, with a 6.3-fold increase.

By 2019, the United States will generate 45.7 exabytes of traffic each month, followed by China, with 21.9 exabytes. South Africa and Saudi Arabia will have the fastest rate of growth, each with 44 percent.